LSU-Alabama
Saturday, Nov. 8
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ABC
LSU-Alabama is one of several games with College Football Playoff implications this weekend. The LSU Tigers are not part of a playoff chase, but they are playing spoiler in Tuscaloosa. They go into this game with absolutely nothing to lose because they are not playing for high stakes, also because they have an interim staff after firing coach Brian Kelly. It is no secret that Brian Kelly was not particularly admired or respected in the locker room. He never did fit in Baton Rouge and never did connect with his players in a way which brought out the best in his LSU team, with the sole exception of his SEC Championship Game run with Jayden Daniels.
It will be fascinating to see if LSU player morale and general relaxation after the hard-driving Kelly’s exit will lift this team’s performance, or if the patchwork nature of the coaching staff leaves LSU without the chalkboard acumen to keep pace with Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Grubb, and the rest of the Alabama braintrust.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are closing in on a playoff berth, but after a sloppy near-loss to South Carolina and some other less-than-great performances this season, they aren’t yet a lock to make the 12-team field and have to finish the job. A win here moves them one very big step closer to their goal, but the pressure of the chase cannot be discounted against an LSU team which can be free and loose going into this contest.
LSU-Alabama is a story of teams going in opposite directions
Crimson Tide are playing better, regardless of other factors
If you like the idea that LSU is playing with house money as a reason to take the Tigers plus the points, the counterargument is that LSU simply hasn’t performed well, bottoming out against Texas A&M and looking like a team which was out of inspiration and ideas. Alabama did wobble at South Carolina, but at home, the Tide thumped Tennessee. Alabama has shown a reasonable comfort level at home and has a much higher floor — a baseline level of expected quality — in Tuscaloosa. Home field and LSU’s lack of quality are strong reasons to go with the Tide. w
LSU Tigers-Alabama Crimson Tide Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: LSU +10 (-110), Alabama -10 (-110)
Total: 49.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: LSU +300
The Crimson Tide do play a lot better at home. LSU might, however, start quickly for a new coaching staff which will inspire these players more than Brian Kelly ever did. There are enough variables in this game to be a little gunshy about making a pregame wager, but if you did want Alabama minus the 10, we wouldn’t blame you. You could try Alabama minus-9.5 on a slightly adjusted line for what would still be reasonably good value.
You could, however, wait to see if LSU gets a quick 7-0 lead with an early burst of momentum. Then you could get Bama at perhaps minus-5.5 or 4.5 live and set yourself up even better. The main thing is to watch the first five minutes. If you see that LSU isn’t showing up, you can pound Bama live. If LSU gets an early start, you can wait for a Bama in-game line which is several points lower.