Navy-Notre Dame
Saturday, Nov. 8
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
NBC, Peacock
Navy-Notre Dame is one of the most important college football games of Week 11. Everyone knows Notre Dame has to win out to make the College Football Playoff at 10-2. The story which might be flying under the radar this weekend is Navy. The Midshipmen just lost decisively to North Texas. It is easy to discount them as a playoff contender — they certainly did not look like one against North Texas. However, Navy is still part of a large jumble of teams in the American Conference with a chance to capture the conference championship and go to the playoff as the Group of Five champion. It is very likely that the American champion will be the Group of Five champion, with only San Diego State of the Mountain West being a possible fly in the ointment which can bust up that scenario.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish know that they are eight spots ahead of the Miami Hurricanes in the first College Football Playoff rankings. It will be hard for Notre Dame to drop below Miami as long as it goes 10-2. This rankings story drew a lot of attention since, of course, Notre Dame lost to Miami. An eight-spot gap took a lot of people by surprise. Nevertheless, that is great news for Notre Dame. By all appearances, it’s win and in for the Fighting Irish, who are in good position to return to the 12-team field and give it a ride in college football’s postseason tournament.
Navy-Notre Dame is a big game with a huge spread
Fighting Irish are getting a lot of respect here
Notre Dame’s win over USC might have convinced the markets that the Fighting Irish can bury inferior teams. Notre Dame is giving 26.5 points here, which seems like a lot given that Navy just did lose its first game of the season and seems to have a good team — not great, but not terrible. Wouldn’t it make a lot more sense for a 26.5-point line to exist if Navy was a mediocre team? Keep in mind this is not the best Marcus Freeman team we have seen at Notre Dame. It seems like a high number. However, rushing for over 300 yards in the win against USC clearly cemented a belief in the markets that the Irish are a powerhouse team now.
Navy Midshipmen-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Navy +26.5 (-110), Notre Dame -26.5 (-110)
Total: 55.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Navy +1300
The Notre Dame offensive line is strong and is likely to overpower Navy’s defensive front. Notre Dame will score. The real question is whether Notre Dame’s defense can dominate Navy’s offense. It leads to a betting situation in which you can probably make two bets in tandem. If you think Notre Dame covers, take the under due to a belief Navy’s offense won’t show up. If you think Navy covers, take the over due to a corresponding belief that Navy will score enough to not get completely demolished. Either this game is Notre Dame 38, Navy 10, or it’s Notre Dame 45, Navy 24. Your view of the ND defense versus the Navy offense should dictate your plays on this game.