Michigan-Northwestern
Saturday, Nov. 15
12:10 p.m. Eastern, 9:10 a.m. Pacific
FOX
Michigan-Northwestern is a clash of teams in markedly different situations. The Michigan Wolverines are still alive in the College Football Playoff race, but given the standard Ohio State has set this season, it is hard to think that Michigan can once again knock off the Buckeyes as a massive underdog. UM pulled it off one year ago, but it would be even more astounding if the Wolverines defy the odds yet again. Yet, stranger things have happened, and Michigan knows that if it can beat Northwestern in Week 12, it would indeed keep alive its hopes of reaching a 10-2 record. If Michigan can go 10-2 – which would necessarily include a win over Ohio State – it would indeed return to the playoff this year. Ohio State can wait. Right now it’s all about Northwestern for Sherrone Moore’s team.
Michigan has been a relatively ordinary team this season. The Wolverines have not looked good against high-end opponents, losing to USC by a lot and being outclassed by Oklahoma earlier in the season. Bryce Underwood has obvious athleticism and talent, but he is raw and a clear work in progress. Other freshman quarterbacks have set the bar higher. Underwood does not look like someone who will soon dominate the college game. It might take him three years to do that, and that’s part of the uncertain picture which exists at Michigan right now.
Michigan-Northwestern is rooted in mistake avoidance
Wolverines need to be responsible on offense, not heroic
Strictly in terms of the Northwestern game, Michigan is facing an opponent which does play solid defense. Northwestern, under coach David Braun, knows how to drag less-than-great offenses into the mud and create familiar Big Ten football grinders. Michigan might want to escape the Northwestern trap, but purely in terms of the style of play, the Wolverines might have to play the kind of game NU wants.
Where Michigan has the clear-cut advantage is on defense. The Wolverines are going up against Preston Stone, one of the worst quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Michigan’s defense should be able to contain Northwestern at the very least. What UM would love to achieve against NU is a pick-six or another high-impact turnover early in the game to instantly build a lead and take the pressure off the Wolverines’ offense. Michigan might not score big, but Michigan should be able to smother Northwestern.
Michigan Wolverines-Northwestern Wildcats Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Michigan -12.5 (-105), Northwestern +12.5 (-115)
Total: 41.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Northwestern +400
Given the obvious limitations of the Michigan offense, taking the Wolverines to cover a double-digit spread on the road feels like a gamble. The play which seems like the best and most natural starting point for this game from a betting perspective is the under. Michigan-Washington was an under. Michigan-Purdue was an under. This game looks and feels like an under as well, When a team such as Michigan shows some relatively consistent patterns, such as an inability to really put the hammer down on offense but also an ability to deliver regularly on defense, taking the under feels less like a risk, more like a studied observation.