Ohio State-Michigan
Saturday, Nov. 29
12:10 p.m. Eastern, 9:10 a.m. Pacific
Fox
Ohio State-Michigan, The Game, is a classic sports rivalry – not just American college football, but any sport. It belongs alongside Red Sox-Yankees, Real Madrid-Barcelona, Celtics-Lakers, and Brazil-Argentina as one of the best sports rivalries on the planet. We get to see how much this rivalry matters, and how deeply it resonates, each year. We saw it last year when Michigan improbably won outright as an underdog of nearly 20 points and danced at midfield in Ohio Stadium, eliciting a strong and fierce reaction from Ohio State players who did not like how Wolverine players were celebrating. The obvious point to make: If Ohio State had played better, Michigan would not have won or celebrated.
Now, one year later, here we go again: Ohio State is a clear-cut favorite with a team in position to win a national championship. Michigan has won four straight in this Big Ten football series, and Ohio State coach Ryan Day has become known as the guy who cannot beat Michigan, much like former OSU coach John Cooper from the 1990s. Day has won a national championship, but if he can’t beat Michigan yet again as a clear favorite, he will not hear the end of it from his fan base. This is the drama of Ohio State-Michigan, which has a very familiar feel once again.
Ohio State-Michigan offers the promise of ultimate drama
Buckeyes try to solve their Michigan problem
Ohio State has lost to Michigan because it has struggled to score against Michigan’s defense. Last year, Ohio State had a clear advantage at wide receiver but ran the ball way more than it should have. This year, Ohio State doesn’t have an elite running game. Freshman quarterback Julian Sayin doesn’t have to be a hero, but he does need to make the routine throws in important situations, move the chains, and avoid crushing turnovers, especially in the red zone. Ohio State’s defense should be able to put the clamps on an inconsistent Michigan offense which does not usually impose its will on opponents. If Ohio State can be moderately effective on offense and avoid the big mistake, the Buckeyes should definitely win and put their Michigan problem to bed. Whether this will be enough for Ohio State to cover the spread is another matter.
Ohio State Buckeyes-Michigan Wolverines Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the “3 Dog Thursday” Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (-110), Michigan +9.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Michigan +310
The Ohio State defense is so good that the best play in this game might be the under. It would be surprising if Michigan scores anything more than 14 points. If Michigan does score no more than 14, Ohio State would need to score at least 30 if not more to push this game over the total. Given how well Michigan’s defense normally plays against Ryan Day’s Ohio State in this decade, the under feels like a solid bet to make, more than the 9.5-point spread. If we had to lean in one direction on the spread, it would be toward Michigan. Sherrone Moore has his deficiencies as a coach, but he gets Michigan ready for Ohio State. This game is on Michigan’s home field in Ann Arbor. The under is the play. Wait a quarter to see if a Michigan spread bet is appropriate. If Ohio State gets out to a quick 7-0 lead, that plus-9.5 ticket will instantly be in grave danger, so we don’t recommend a pregame spread bet, only a live in-game bet after watching at least one quarter.