Iowa-USC
Saturday, Nov. 15
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
Big Ten Network
Iowa-USC is a classic contrast of styles, and it carries a lot of importance. The USC Trojans are still alive in the College Football Playoff race, but only barely. They have to go to Oregon next week in a game few people think they have a chance to win. USC is fighting an uphill battle; the odds are squarely stacked against the Trojans in the push for a playoff spot. Nevertheless, if USC can’t win this week against Iowa, the Oregon game won’t matter. USC at least wants to make sure that when it packs its bags for Eugene to play its former Pac-12 rival, now in the Big Ten, the game will mean everything it can possibly mean. USC is playing to essentially extend its season against Iowa.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a wrenching 18-16 loss to Oregon which knocked them out of the playoff derby. Iowa trailed most of the day but never fell behind by more than nine points and was able to scramble late for a 16-15 lead. The Hawkeyes had to get one more defensive stop against Dante Moore and the Ducks, but they couldn’t get it done. Oregon drove into comfortable field goal range and hit the winning kick at the end of the game.
Iowa-USC is a Big Ten football matchup of styles
Hawkeyes, Trojans have different ways of playing and want to impose their will
Oregon-Iowa was a very typical Iowa game at Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes played great defense and squeezed out just enough offense to push a top team to the limit. They fell short, but they imposed their style of play on a more athletic and talented opponent.
That basically sums up the challenge for Iowa in this game against USC. Iowa does not have more speed or athleticism than the Trojans, but it does have more physicality and can shrink the field by dominating in the trenches. If Iowa can pressure USC quarterback Jayden Maiava and not allow him to be comfortable in the pocket, USC’s star receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane won’t have much of an impact on Saturday in Los Angeles. If Iowa can consistently throw the first punch, USC’s speed won’t be able to have an effect on this contest.
If there is a concern for Iowa here, it’s not that the playoff dream is dead and there’s nothing to play for. This is a road trip to play USC in Southern California. It’s like a mini-Rose Bowl for Iowa. Players should be excited to play in a game like this. No, the real concern for the Hawkeyes is that this is a road game. They are so tough and formidable in Kinnick Stadium, but when they travel long distances in the Big Ten, they often stumble. Consider last year, when Iowa played arguably the worst game of the 2024 season in a loss to a not-very-good UCLA team which didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. Can Iowa play well away from Iowa City?
Iowa Hawkeyes-USC Trojans Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the “3 Dog Thursday” Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Iowa +6.5 (-110), USC -6.5 (-110)
Total: 48.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Iowa +200
Iowa’s line play can make this a very difficult game for USC, which has been inconsistent despite what the 7-2 record might lead you to believe about the Trojans. USC was fortunate to beat Nebraska; had Dylan Raiola not gotten injured midway through that game, the Trojans might have lost. USC is not an elite team. Iowa has the line play needed to win. Yet, Iowa’s mediocre track record in road games makes it hard to fully trust the Hawkeyes in this spot.
Of the various games on the board for 3Dog Thursday in Week 12, this is the true “stay-away game.” It’s hard to get a good read on either team in this situation, so you should simply pass and look for other games with better, more reliable plays and betting angles.