Georgia Tech-Duke
Saturday, Oct. 18
12 p.m. Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific
ESPN
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have a great opportunity in front of them. They are unbeaten halfway through the season. They do not play Miami on their regular-season schedule. They already beat Clemson. The path exists for Georgia Tech to win at least 10 games if not 11 and earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game. If Tech can beat rival Georgia, it will get a long look as a playoff team. Georgia Tech faces Duke this weekend. Given that Tech is undefeated whereas Duke has lost multiple games, it might seem obvious that Georgia Tech should be favored. Yet, that is not the case. We will naturally talk more about this as we go along, but remember that on some occasions, when you see a line that looks really weird, the line proves to be right.
Georgia Tech tries to stay unbeaten
Will the Yellow Jackets play to the level of the competition?
The reason Duke is favored — we don’t necessarily agree with the reasoning, but we definitely understand it — is that Georgia Tech frequently plays down to the level of its competition. The Yellow Jackets have no problem getting up for big games. They have knocked off a number of top-10-ranked opponents in recent seasons under coach Brent Key. However, the smaller and less credentialed opponents often jump up and bite the Jackets.
This very nearly happened earlier in the season. Wake Forest took a big early lead on Tech before the Yellow Jackets rallied late and forced overtime. GT scored first. Wake scored second and chose to go for a winner-take-all 2-point conversion. Tech got the stop and won 30-29. Tech survived, but the tendency to play down to the opponent remained intact. That is surely why Duke is a slight favorite here. It’s up to the Yellow Jackets to refute the thesis this time.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets-Duke Blue Devils Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Georgia Tech +1.5 (-110), Duke -1.5 (-110)
Total: 60.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Georgia Tech +100
The reality of Georgia Tech not playing its best ball against weaker opponents is hard to shake in this game. Tech is not one of the blue bloods in college football. It is not one of the elite teams until it really proves it. There is and should be some skepticism about the Yellow Jackets’ ability to stay the course. All of that is reasonable.
The problem from a betting standpoint is Duke. The Blue Devils do not have a good defense. They have allowed 33 or more points on several occasions this season. They lost 45-19 to Illinois at home. They crushed Cal on the road, but Cal is not very good, and it’s logical to view that result as more a commentary on how inadequate the Golden Bears are than on anything Duke has achieved this season.
It’s not easy to trust Tech in this spot, but it’s also not easy to trust Duke on a general level. Stay away from this game. There are better games and angles in Week 8. This game is a live-play game. It is not suited to a pregame wager.