Nebraska-Minnesota
Friday, Oct. 17
8:05 p.m. Eastern, 5:05 p.m. Pacific
Fox
The Big Ten has a lot of fascinating plot points to consider entering Week 8. The first Big Ten game on the board is a Friday night fight between Nebraska and Minnesota.
The Big Ten, since it expanded to 18 schools, has become a conference in which modestly good teams have a better chance to move up the ladder. This seems counterintuitive, but it becomes easier to understand when you realize that in a larger conference, teams will play a smaller percentage of the full membership in the league.
The Big 12 no longer has 10 teams — it has expanded well beyond that point — but when it had just 10, all 10 schools would play a full league schedule against each other. All schools played nine Big 12 games. No team avoided playing another because the conference was smaller.
The 18-member Big Ten is so large that teams will avoid playing several prominent opponents. Nebraska is a great example. The Huskers don’t play Ohio State, Indiana, or Oregon. They play Penn State, and now that PSU is decimated by injuries while also lacking a permanent head coach, that game becomes extremely winnable. Nebraska is therefore a Big Ten contender, even if the team’s performance has not been elite.
Nebraska has to take advantage of favorable schedule
Dylan Raiola needs to avoid turnovers on the road
This game against Minnesota is a manageable one for Nebraska. It’s not a lock, but it’s certainly a more favorable matchup than playing Oregon or Indiana. Dylan Raiola has been okay at quarterback. He hasn’t been fantastic — he still throws interceptions in bad spots — but he is better than last year, and he has thrown the ball really well in fourth quarters of games, which is a good sign. Nebraska overcame a late deficit to beat Maryland on the road. It was a bumpy ride, but Raiola did just enough to win. Now Raiola needs a steadier performance — no pick-sixes — to handle Minnesota. He can’t continue to give away possessions and points if the Huskers are to remain on schedule this season.
Nebraska Cornhuskers-Minnesota Golden Gophers Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Nebraska -7 (-110), Minnesota +7 (-110)
Total: 47.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Minnesota +240
The fact that Nebraska has only one loss so far this season certainly helps explain why the Huskers are touchdown favorites on the road. Minnesota struggling with Purdue (a not-very-good team) at home also explains part of this larger picture.
However, when we get down to brass tacks, making a Dylan Raiola-quarterbacked team a touchdown favorite on the road, at night, in the Big Ten, just seems too good to be true. Nebraska very nearly lost to Maryland, a team which is not that much better than Minnesota. If the line is Nebraska -7, you could probably just take Minnesota plus 7.5 for just a few cents less and have a really good chance of winning your bet at a still-reasonable price. Nebraska should be favored here, but the line should be closer to four points than seven. If you want to sprinkle in a little for the Gopher moneyline, sure — why not?