Oregon-Iowa
Saturday, Nov. 8
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
CBS
Oregon-Iowa has become a bigger game than a lot of people were probably expecting a few months ago. Penn State, Illinois, and other expected Big Ten contenders have faded from view. They are completely out of the picture for the College Football Playoff. Iowa has stepped into the void, becoming a team which can make a darkhorse run at the playoff. Iowa has just two losses and therefore can still get into the 12-team field with a 10-2 record. Oregon would be a quality win for the Hawkeyes, who get this game on national television at home. They aren’t likely to make the playoff, but it’s a week into November and they still have a shot. That might be more than they reasonably could have expected back in late August, when the season began.
Oregon, meanwhile, urgently needs this win. The Ducks were not ranked in the top eight of the playoff field this week. A loss probably pushes Oregon outside the top 12 and would make the playoff a very uncertain proposition down the stretch. Oregon might need to go 11-1, not 10-2, to get into the playoff this season. At the very least, winning here gives UO some margin for error in the final weeks of the season.
The one college football game you simply can’t miss in the Big Ten this week is Ducks-Hawkeyes.
Oregon-Iowa is a test for the offenses
Neither team has flourished on offense this season
The Oregon Ducks have a quarterback, Dante Moore, who has been relatively ordinary over the past month. He looked good in September against weak opposition but has struggled as the competition has gotten tougher over the course of the campaign. The performance against Penn State looks and feels different after seeing the Nittany Lions implode this season. Moore did legitimately play well in that game, but the quality of competition was not as robust as previously thought. When Moore faced Indiana, he did not play well, and he then struggled recently against Wisconsin. Moore and Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski have both labored for large portions of the season and have a lot to prove to themselves, their teammates, and the nation in this game. There’s a reason the total is set at a relatively low 41.5. The quarterbacks have not been playing well in recent weeks. If one decisively outplays the other, that team will cover the spread and very likely win.
Oregon Ducks-Iowa Hawkeyes Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Oregon -6.5 (-105), Iowa +6.5 (-115)
Total: 41.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Iowa +200
The calculus attached to this game is not complicated: Better quarterback, better offense wins. Even though Oregon’s offense has not looked good in recent weeks, it’s really hard to see how Iowa and Mark Gronowski will score enough to beat Oregon’s quality defense in a high-stakes game the Ducks badly need to win. Oregon might score only 20, but Iowa might not score more than 10. Oregon at minus-6.5 feels like a very solid play. At 8.5 or 9.5, Iowa would be an attractive choice, but at this spread, the number seems low and an invitation to take the Ducks. We will take the bait in this case.