Iowa State-Cincinnati
Saturday, Oct. 4
12 p.m. Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific
ESPN2
The Iowa State Cyclones and Cincinnati Bearcats are part of a predictably jumbled Big 12 Conference race. The Big 12 has become the Power Four conference no one can easily predict. This was pure roller derby last season, with several teams jockeying for position and no one emerging as the clear favorite throughout the year. When the dust settled, Iowa State was one of the two teams left standing. The Cyclones faced Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game and came within one win of the College Football Playoff.
Iowa State is very much in the hunt for a Big 12 title this year. So are the Cincinnati Bearcats after a surprising Big 12 road win at Kansas last week. This game won’t get the huge banner headlines in Week 6, but it’s a very intriguing contest which is fascinating to pick apart from a betting perspective. Which team will earn another head-to-head tiebreaker advantage in the Big 12 standings? Pocketing as many head-to-head wins as possible is likely to matter a lot in late November.
Iowa State has a lot to prove, and not just to Las Vegas
Cyclones are being doubted for a reason
This game has a Vegas price which will be surprising to a lot of people. Iowa State is a more accomplished and proven program than Cincinnati, certainly if you account for the simple fact that Cincinnati is several years removed from its College Football Playoff appearance under former coach Luke Fickell. Ever since Fickell left for Wisconsin, Cincinnati has not been good. Current UC head coach Scott Satterfield has struggled on the job. Iowa State has often won nine or more games under current coach Matt Campbell. This has been one of the most fruitful periods in Iowa State football history. Why, then, is ISU an outright and spread underdog against the Bearcats?
You might disagree with the weight assigned to the reason, but the reason is simple enough to understand. Iowa State is not a proven entity on the road. ISU struggled against a not-very-good Arkansas State team on the road. The Cyclones are strong at home but have not been nearly as convincing when they travel away from Ames. This is what Vegas is doubting, and the Cyclones have to show they can be a reliable road team before the markets adjust to them.
Iowa State Cyclones-Cincinnati Bearcats Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Iowa State +1.5 (-110), Cincinnati -1.5 (-110)
Total: 55.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Iowa State +100
The Cyclones just did thump Arizona by a large margin. It’s worth noting that Iowa State went off as just a five-point favorite in that game and won the spread bet by multiple touchdowns. The market already did misread ISU against Arizona, so this apparent mis-priced line — having the Cyclones as an outright underdog against Cincy — looks like yet another opportunity to bank some money on an Iowa State bet. Technically, you can claim Iowa State as your underdog moneyline special, but in truth, ISU ought to have been favored by 2.5 points in this game. You’re getting great value with the Cyclones and shouldn’t think twice about it.