Miami-Florida State
Saturday, Oct. 4
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ABC
The Miami Hurricanes could become a near-lock as a College Football Playoff team if they can defeat Florida State. They took care of Notre Dame. They dispensed with South Florida, and they smothered the Florida Gators. Mario Cristobal has a tough team with balance and consistency. The offense might wobble at times, but the defense has been strong. Miami isn’t making the mistakes which have hurt the Hurricanes in past seasons. The U will try to make sure this season doesn’t take the wrong turn in Tallahassee against its archrival.
Miami needs this game, but Florida State needs it even more
Florida State must bounce back from Virginia loss
The backdrop to this game changed abruptly last week, when Florida State — as a 7-point road favorite — lost to Virginia in a high-scoring thriller. The Florida State defense got chewed up by the Virginia offense. Mike Norvell’s Seminoles made a ton of mistakes in a sloppy display which was defined by a lack of focus and concentration. It is hard to deny the notion that Florida State was looking past Virginia and thinking about Miami. We see it all the time in college football, and we saw it in Week 5.
Florida State has to turn the page in Week 6. We know the Seminoles will be energized and motivated, but they have to be precise and detail-oriented. FSU took care of the details in an emphatic early-season win over Alabama, but that level of care and clarity was missing against Virginia. It has to return to the forefront against Miami.
Florida State, having already absorbed an ACC loss to Virginia, knows that if it fails against Miami, it will have two ACC defeats with a lot of season left. Florida State’s odds of making the ACC Championship Game would take a huge hit, and the whole season would be imperiled for the Seminoles.
Miami Hurricanes-Florida State Seminoles Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Miami -4.5 (-110), Florida State +4.5 (-110)
Total: 54.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Florida State +165
The Miami Hurricanes are playing great defense, but their offense has shown signs of weakness. Miami did not play especially well on offense against Florida. The Canes started and ended the game well, but in the second and third quarters, they got stuffed. They were stuck and took a long time to get back on track. If Miami plays just two good offensive quarters in this game against a hyped-up Florida State side, it will be in trouble. Miami has to be steadier on offense. The defense has held up its end of the bargain, but the offense has to come into a road environment at night and quiet the Florida State crowd. This will happen with a strong run game complemented by effective play-action passing which moves the chains and occasionally hits a kill shot downfield.
Florida State’s defense was horrible against Virginia. Was it an aberration or a sign of things to come? We will find out here, but if Florida State’s defense can contain Miami’s offense, the Seminoles will certainly keep the game close and have a good shot at winning outright in a game they need more than Miami does. Florida State plus the 4.5 looks like a very solid play from where we sit. Noles moneyline for fewer units is a reasonable play, but start with the spread bet for FSU.