Friday, Dec. 6
8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific
Fox
The first of the big conference championship games occurs Friday night in Boise. That’s the first really big detail to pay attention to in this contest. Boise State and UNLV played during the regular season, but they did so in Vegas in a domed environment at Allegiant Stadium. Boise State won a very physical and hard-fought game with its defense, 29-24. Neither offense really broke free of the other team’s defense. Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman Trophy candidate who has had a spectacular season, did not have one of his better statistical games. He did eclipse 100 yards, as he has done in every game in 2024, but he did not run wild. UNLV, on balance, did a better job containing him than most of the other teams Boise State has faced this season.
Now the scene shifts to Boise, where the outdoor cold in early December figures to be a challenge for Vegas and a benefit for the homestanding Broncos, who are one win away from a spot in the College Football Playoff. With the Big 12 having a miserable season in terms of producing one clear-cut elite team (none exist), most experts think Boise State will not only get into the playoff as Group of Five champion with a win, but it will get the No. 4 seed and a first-round playoff bye with a victory here. The stakes are enormous, and the Heisman angle with Jeanty adds another dimension to an already-huge occasion. Jeanty gets a 13th game in which to make his case.
Presumptive favorite Travis Hunter is likely to win the award, but he doesn’t get the extra stage Jeanty has in this game. If Jeanty rushes for 300 yards, voters who haven’t turned in ballots might have reason to reconsider. It’s a longshot, but not out of the realm of possibility if Boise State dominates the line of scrimmage. The Broncos will want to feed Jeanty anyway, but if he gets big first-half numbers, he could roll up even more stats in the second half.
UNLV Rebels-Boise State Broncos Odds
Spread: UNLV +3.5 (+100), Boise State -3.5 (-122)
Total: 57.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: UNLV +152
Will the rematch benefit UNLV?
The fact that Boise State has already won in Las Vegas makes this rematch a tough one for the visiting Rebels. Moreover, UNLV already did play good defense against Jeanty in the first meeting. Can the Rebels realistically play even better defense and hold Jeanty under 100 yards in this rematch? We often think that winning twice against the same opponent is hard – and that’s generally true – but here it seems that the rematch might point toward a Boise State sweep, given that UNLV did a lot of things well in the first game, but still couldn’t win at home. The more we think about this game, the more we think that Boise State has the fundamental advantage in the cold and on blue turf in a night setting.
Boise State played a lot of mediocre football over the past few weeks, especially against Nevada and Wyoming. However, the Broncos did look better against Oregon State one week ago. Now they have the game of their season in front of them. They should be ready. Barring a spectacular series of errors, the Broncos should be able to gain – and keep – the upper hand with a small spread on the board. Boise State winning this game by at least four points seems far more likely than not.