Saturday, Sept. 14
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
Fox
The 2024 college football season has a number of headline-generating matchups in Week 3. This Big 12 game is going to fly under the radar compared to a number of the other games on tap for September 14, but it’s a very compelling game which will help shape what is currently a fluid and very wide open race in the Big 12. Keep this point in mind about the Big 12: Utah will not have quarterback Cam Rising for the next few weeks. The Utes will be vulnerable and therefore are not likely to run away with the Big 12 title this year. They are probably going to take a few losses and will need other Big 12 contenders to lose as well. Oklahoma State and Kansas State look like moderately good teams, but they were both fortunate to escape thrillers last weekend in Week 2, OSU versus Arkansas and Kansas State at Tulane.
Arizona does not look very sharp through two games. The Wildcats have struggled and must sort out a lot of internal problems under first-year coach Brent Brennan. Everything seems up in the air, so UCF and TCU are looking at all of this chaos and volatility and sensing a chance to make a move in the conference. The winner of this game has a real opportunity to do something in the new-look conference, with Texas and Oklahoma safely in the SEC, unable to do anything in the Big 12 this year.
UCF Knights-TCU Horned Frogs Odds
Spread: UCF -2.5 (-110), TCU +2.5 (-110)
Total: 61.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: TCU +115
Why the Frogs appear to have the advantage?
There is one obvious advantage for TCU in this game: The Horned Frogs have already played a nonconference road game, while UCF has played a couple of not-very-challenging nonconference home games. UCF finally steps out onto the road with a long commute to Fort Worth. TCU will play in front of a revved-up crowd at Amon Carter Stadium. UCF might be the slightly better team, but TCU playing at home in its first really big home game of the season should be worth at least a field goal for the Frogs. UCF not being familiar with a raucous road environment in 2024 could lead to some missteps and shaky plays in the first half of this game. If UCF encounters any adversity whatsoever, it will be a challenge for the Knights to steer the game back in their direction and play the style of game they want.
Hear T.J.Rives and Jason Powers breakdown TCU’s underdog chances on this week’s “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play,
Both coaches in this game, Gus Malzahn of UCF and Sonny Dykes of TCU, are established offensive tacticians, which should point this game in the direction of a shootout more than a defensive grinder. That’s why the over is an attractive play in this game. That point aside, neither team has shown yet that it has a legitimate clamp-down defense in what could be a wide-open Big 12 Conference this season. Any turnover could be the equivalent of losing serve in a John Isner tennis match. One break of serve in a set can feel – and become – quite decisive. Both teams will be dancing on a high wire in this one. TCU is worth a good long look as an underdog, but the larger overall betting reality of this game is that it feels very coin-flippy, and that’s not the kind of game you generally should want to bet on.