Saturday, Nov. 16
12 p.m. Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific
ESPN2
The Navy Midshipmen were sailing along this season, and then they arrived at a game against Notre Dame. They could not catch or handle the ball and drowned in a sea of turnovers. The Midshipmen have been struggling to find equilibrium and balance since then. They were rusty and sluggish in a weather-delayed loss at Rice. They did manage to beat South Florida in their most recent game, but despite the victory, their offense did not max out.
Navy’s offense was going gangbusters in the first two months of the season. The Midshipmen scored 34 or more points in each of their first six games of the season. They have not scored more than 28 in their last three. Navy scored at least 41 points in four of its first six games this year, and has averaged under 18 points in its last three games. The dropoff has been dramatic, not slight. Against Notre Dame, in which Navy scored just 14 points, we could chalk up that regression to the caliber of the opponent on the other side of the ball. Against Rice and South Florida, that’s not the case, or at least, it’s not nearly as easy to make the same argument. Navy truly has regressed, and that’s part of why Tulane, as you will see below, has been installed by Vegas as a solid road favorite in this game.
Tulane Green Wave-Navy Midshipmen Odds
Spread: Tulane -6.5 (-120), Navy +6.5 (-102)
Total: 54.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Navy +195
Hear why T.J. Rives loves Navy as the doggie this week on the latest “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Can Tulane Survive Tough Road Test?
The Tulane Green Wave are good. They gave Kansas State a tough battle earlier in the season before falling just short against the Wildcats. Had Tulane won that game, it would have been even more centrally in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot. As things stand right now, Tulane needs losses by both Army and Boise State – not one, but both – to have any shot at the Group of Five championship. Tulane has a highly respected head coach, Jon Sumrall, who came to New Orleans from Troy University in Alabama. Tulane appears to have hired a highly competent successor to Willie Fritz, which is central to the maintenance of the Green Wave’s football resurgence.
Given that Navy has fallen on hard times, and more precisely has began to struggle on offense after lighting up weaker opponents earlier in the season, we think Tulane – favored by under seven points – is good enough to win this game by a touchdown and thereby cover the spread. Tulane is not the kind of team Navy needs to face right now to get healthy. Navy needed a weaker, more manageable opponent; Tulane does not fit the bill. We’re going to go with Tulane and feel relatively comfortable about it. After all, no one should bet on a game if he or she doesn’t feel comfortable with the pick. You don’t have to bet on every game or prop; Tulane looks like a very solid choice here.