Troy-James Madison
Friday, Dec. 5
7 p.m. Eastern, 4 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
Troy-James Madison is the biggest Sun Belt Championship Game of all time. The Sun Belt has never put a team into the College Football Playoff, but that could change with James Madison if two things happen this weekend. First, JMU has to beat Troy. Given that the Dukes are a 23.5-point favorite, that part of the equation is likely. The harder but still very realistic part of the equation is if Duke can beat Virginia in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night in Charlotte.
The ACC really did paint itself into a corner by not creating tiebreakers or structures which put Miami, clearly the league’s best team, in position to play in the ACC Championship Game. The Hurricanes obviously have the best playoff resume of any team in the conference, but they have been locked outside the ACC title game even though they never did play Virginia or Duke during the regular season.
The big reminder to pass along about the College Football Playoff format is that the five highest-ranked conference champions get in. Duke is a five-loss team which lost three nonconference games and lost only two ACC games, sneaking into the title game. If Duke beats Virginia and becomes ACC champion, Duke will not win a head-to-head comparison with a James Madison team which will be 12-1 if it beats Troy. JMU, not Duke, would be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. James Madison would join the North Texas-Tulane (American Conference) winner as a Group of Five team in the CFP. The Group of Five could get two teams into the playoff. No one saw this coming.
Troy-James Madison is all about the favorite trying to close the deal
Dukes and Bob Chesney have a chance to make playoff history
Troy-James Madison is a story of the Sun Belt and the Group of Five trying to do new things. The Sun Belt getting a team in the playoff and the Group of Five getting two teams in the playoff would be remarkable plot twists for college football.
James Madison will try to remain focused even though coach Bob Chesney has agreed to become UCLA’s new coach after his run with JMU ends. Chesney will coach JMU if the Dukes go to the playoff, but this could still be a distraction and will be foremost on bettors’ minds.
Troy Trojans-James Madison Dukes Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking Play below:
Spread: Troy +23.5 (-115), James Madison -23.5 (-105)
Total: 47.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Troy +1200
The spread is huge for a game in which James Madison might either be distracted, overconfident, or both. Yet, JMU is clearly the better team, playing at home, in a high-stakes situation. JMU winning by 30 wouldn’t be a shocker. James Madison winning by 10 wouldn’t be a shocker. The lean to the total is the under, because James Madison’s defense should be able to shut down Troy. Ultimately, though, the spread and the prices do not lend themselves to an obvious betting play you can and should feel supremely confident about. Pass on this one.