Wednesday, Jan. 1
1 p.m. Eastern, 10 a.m. Pacific
ESPN/ABC
The New Year’s Day College Football Playoff tripleheader begins in Atlanta, as Arizona State returns to the Peach Bowl for the first time since 1970, when it defeated North Carolina in an Atlanta snowstorm. Texas stands in the way of a possible Arizona State-Oregon College Football Playoff semifinal game which would contain a big Pac-12 flavor. It’s wild to look at the top half of the bracket and think about the possibilities in the semifinal round. Texas could face Ohio State in a potential blue-blood semifinal if the dominoes fall differently. This is an endlessly interesting matchup to evaluate.
The biggest story of this game from a pure betting standpoint is that Texas watched two starting offensive linemen, Cam Williams and Jake Majors, get hurt in the first-round playoff win over Clemson. Reports from the past week have indicated that the injuries, however, are not as serious as first feared, and that both starters might be able to play. That said, we don’t know if Williams and Majors will be at full strength for this game. Backups might still have to be rotated into the lineup. It’s an important piece of the puzzle and something everyone will be looking at closely in the first quarter on the Longhorns’ first possession.
Texas’s injury concerns magnify one obvious point about the new 12-team playoff: Playing that first-round game invites the possibility of attrition, all while the four teams with first-round byes get to rest up and heal. Rest versus rust is one factor in these quarterfinal games, but health versus attrition is the other really big factor. How much Texas will be affected by these injuries – if at all – is a central talking point. If Texas’s offense is hampered to any meaningful degree, that rates as a big development in this game. If it isn’t, Longhorn backers would feel emboldened in trusting UT against a very good Arizona State team which has nevertheless lost two games this season.
Texas Longhorns-Arizona State Sun Devils Odds
Spread: Texas -13.5 (-115), Arizona State +13.5 (-105)
Total: 52.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Arizona State +400
Hear T.J. Rives and Jason Powers breakdown the Peach Bowl on the latest “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
The Arizona State Sun Devils have one of the best players in the country. How the Texas defense handles Cam Skattebo is a central part of this game, but how well ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt can throw the ball – thereby setting up the running game and magnifying Skattebo’s level of effectiveness – might become the biggest single key to this game.
Texas’s defense was strong against the run versus Clemson, but the Longhorns’ corners looked ordinary against Clemson’s receivers. It will be interesting to see if Arizona State runs the ball first, or if coach Kenny Dillingham thinks he needs to throw to set up the run. Skattebo is the engine which makes ASU function well, but Leavitt will need to throw a few key passes in high-leverage situations for ASU to have a chance to win.
Ultimately, 13.5 points feels like a lot, given that Texas’s defense did not play a great game versus Clemson. The over looks like a good play here, given that the Texas-Clemson game produced 62 points and this game is in a domed stadium. A 30-23 score cashes the over? It seems hard to think Texas won’t score at least 30 and that ASU won’t score at least 20. Our lean is to ASU against the spread, but the over could cash as long as Texas scores over 35. In the end, the over – not a spread bet – is the best play.