Saturday, Nov. 16
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ABC
Here is quite a fascinating scenario for college football in Week 12. The SEC could have a six- or seven-way tie in the standings. We could have a remarkable logjam at the top of the conference entering December, as teams jockey for position in the College Football Playoff. In order for that six- or seven-way tie to happen, Georgia needs to beat one-loss Tennessee and put various SEC teams on equal footing.
Georgia has been banged up on the offensive line. We saw the limitations of the roster come into play last week in a loss to Ole Miss. Georgia’s offense got thrown around like a rag doll, and quarterback Carson Beck continued to commit turnovers. He has been a turnover faucet for Georgia and has brought about a significant downturn in production and overall dependability compared to his predecessor, Stetson Bennett. The Georgia offense has profoundly declined, making the Bulldogs a much weaker team than they were in the Bennett years. Tennessee’s defense has been solid this season. It contained Jalen Milroe and Alabama in a victory over the Crimson Tide. If Tennessee could keep Milroe in check – mindful of what Milroe did to LSU a week ago – the Vols will take the field with confidence versus Carson Beck. Georgia’s challenge in this game is on offense, more than anything else.
On defense, Georgia will have reason to think it can deliver a winning performance. Tennessee’s offense has been very inconsistent this season. Young quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had his moments, but most of them came in September, when UT got off to a fast start, mostly in nonconference games. As soon as Tennessee hit the SEC portion of its schedule, Iamaleava began to struggle. He has been in concussion protocol over the past few days but did participate in light workouts, suggesting that he will be cleared to play later in the week. Given how much the Vols have struggled to score and move the ball against good defenses in SEC play, Georgia figures to have the upper hand when the Vols have the ball.
Tennessee Volunteers-Georgia Bulldogs Odds
Spread: Tennessee +9.5 (-106), Georgia -9.5 (-114)
Total: 48.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Tennessee +265
Hear T.J. Rives and Brian Edwards discuss this battle and the Vols chances on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Does Tennessee Have An Upset Brewing?
The total being under 50 points is an early indication that the markets think this game will be fairly low-scoring, certainly not a shootout. Given that point, it might seem hard for Georgia to cover a 9.5-point spread. Maybe 27-17 or 24-14 will be the final, but if the game is under 50 total points, that puts Georgia in a tight box in terms of covering the spread with an offense which doesn’t inspire confidence.
However, if there is an argument to make for Georgia covering the spread, it’s this: First, UGA needs this game more, since it has two losses compared to Tennessee’s one. Second, Georgia being No. 12 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, behind Alabama and Ole Miss, gives the Bulldogs extra motivation and incentive to play well. Georgia winning outright feels like a safe call to make. It’s the spread and total which are tougher to arrive at. Of those two, we’re leaning toward the under more than Georgia minus the points. This game could be a rockfight.