Tennessee-Alabama
Saturday, Oct. 18
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ABC
The Alabama Crimson Tide are clearly better than they were last season. Coach Kalen DeBoer has rebounded really well from the Week 1 loss to Florida State. Alabama appeared to be in huge trouble at the start of September, but the Tide has certainly turned. DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb have settled into a groove. Quarterback Ty Simpson looks like the real deal. However, if a word of caution is merited, it is this: Alabama is not head and shoulders above the rest of the SEC, unlike a decade ago when Nick Saban dominated the conference. Alabama is good, but any slight to moderate degree of slippage could create a loss which instantly complicates the picture for the Crimson Tide. They cannot and should not think they have fully figured things out in the SEC. Tennessee does not figure to be a pushover in Week 8.
Alabama tries to cement itself as SEC favorite
Crimson Tide should like their matchup against Tennessee defense
Injuries loom large in this game. It was believed earlier in the week that Alabama running back Jam Miller wouldn’t play, but his injury status has improved during the week, and Alabama is optimistic he can play. Meanwhile, Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy is out, joining Rickey Gibson and Radarious Jackson as injured players who won’t take the field for the Volunteers. If you want to understand why the Tide is an 8.5-point favorite despite winning games narrowly against Georgia and Missouri, this is why. Health definitely belongs to Alabama here. Tennessee will have to overcome that. Alabama has to like how this game sets up, and Tennessee is fighting against some obvious limitations. That can’t be ignored.
Tennessee Volunteers-Alabama Crimson Tide Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Tennessee +8.5 (-115), Alabama -8.5 (-105)
Total: 58.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Tennessee +260
The Crimson Tide should win this game, but that is a moneyline concern and something you can fold into a parlay. Spread bets are a different matter, and Tennessee is getting a touchdown and a 2-point conversion (plus half a point) here. That’s a lot of points, considering how good the Tennessee offense has been under quarterback Joey Aguilar.
Tennessee’s shorthanded defense is in trouble against Ty Simpson and the rest of the Alabama offense, but the Tennessee offense should be able to score against Bama’s defense. The Vols’ offense is good enough to make bettors think twice about taking the Tide minus the 8.5 points at home. We think you should pass (no pun intended) on that one. The best play here looks like the over. Alabama will almost certainly score in the 30s in this game. Assuming Bama hits 35 points, Tennessee would need a modest 24 points to carry this game over the total. Tennessee might struggle at times, but if Alabama does get a large lead, UT will be throwing the ball the whole second half and should get a garbage touchdown or two. Over 58.5 is the best play here.