Saturday, Sept. 13
4:30 p.m. Eastern, 1:30 p.m. Pacific
CW Network
The biggest college football surprise to this point in the season has been the South Florida Bulls. Coach Alex Golesh could be turning into the hot coach for the coming coaching carousel. South Florida is making a strong case to be considered the favorite in the Group of Five sweepstakes for a spot in the College Football Playoff. USF has established itself as the team to beat in The American. Wins over Boise State and Florida have captured the attention of college football fans and analysts. Now USF gets another big-league test in Week 3.
South Florida Goes For Another Upset Against Miami
USF Upends Florida With Defense
First things first: South Florida beat Florida in Week 2 because the Bulls were able to limit Florida to 16 points. A lot of commentators felt – and feel – that Florida quarterback DJ Lagway is not 100-percent fit, and that his limitations played a role in helping South Florida pull off the upset as a 17.5-point underdog. Notably, USF is a 17.5-point underdog in this game as well. This offers a comparative foundation for picking this game.
Miami is not dealing with an injured quarterback or, at the very least, a quarterback who faces injury questions. Carson Beck is fit, so that should be a cautionary note for anyone tempted to pick South Florida as an outright winner on the moneyline. However, the spread bet for this game is fascinating precisely because both Miami and Florida were favored by the same amount of points.
South Florida Bulls-Miami Hurricanes Odds
Spread: USF +17.5 (-110), Miami -17.5 (-110)
Total: 57.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: South Florida +550
The 17.5-point spread feels like a dare from Vegas: Ya wanna pick South Florida plus 17.5 points in two straight games? Bull backers cashed easily against Florida. Will Miami provide the same story?
Hear T.J. Rives and Jason Powers preview this game on “3 Dog Thursday” the podcast by clicking play below,
Is USF for Real or not?
On one hand, South Florida has proved it is for real. The Boise State win was impressive. Backing up that quality result with another huge win – this time on the road in The Swamp – rates as an eye-grabbing achievement. It is harder to dismiss South Florida as a flash in the pan after the Florida follow-up to the Boise State conquest.
On the other hand, Miami – unlike the Florida Gators – is a good team. Florida is sinking under Billy Napier. Miami looks solid with Carson Beck at quarterback and two solid lines giving the Hurricanes a rugged, physical identity at the line of scrimmage. Miami outplayed Notre Dame in the trenches, and Notre Dame prides itself on line play, particularly on defense.
Miami really is a different animal compared to Florida, so the idea that USF will comfortably cover a 17.5-point spread doesn’t resonate. The only thing to worry about from the Miami side is that the Canes will get a little complacent and won’t go all-out the way they did versus Notre Dame. The lean here is to Miami, but this is ultimately a stay-away game this early in the season.