Saturday, Dec. 21
12:05 p.m. Eastern, 9:05 a.m. Pacific
TNT
The College Football Playoff first round begins with a single game on Friday, but it really gets going on Saturday with a tripleheader. Game 1 of the huge Saturday slate is the matchup between No. 11 seed SMU and No. 6 seed Penn State. Temperatures in State College, Pa., are expected to be in the mid-to-low 20s for this contest. Conditions are expected to be sunny, but they will be frigid, so a natural point of interest will be if the boys from suburban Dallas can handle the cold. It can get cold in a Texas winter, but it’s logical to think that the Pennsylvania-based team will have an easier time adjusting to the conditions. Just how much of an effect will the weather have on SMU’s performance? This is exactly why the 12-team College Football Playoff was always a fascinating college football laboratory experiment. How would a Southern team do if forced to go north for an on-campus game? This is the first big test of that question.
Penn State faces an interesting situation this weekend for a number of reasons. One is that backup quarterback Beau Pribula transferred out of the program and did not wait for this game. Obviously, Drew Allar is firmly positioned as PSU’s starting quarterback. However, the natural point of intrigue arises: What if Allar gets hurt? Penn State would have to turn to a completely unproven third stringer thrust into live competition. Pribula was not an amazing quarterback for Penn State, but he got some snaps and is a good runner. Penn State is now extra thin at quarterback and could see its playoff hopes get derailed if Allar gets knocked out of a game with an injury.
SMU Mustangs-Penn State Nittany Lions Odds
Spread: SMU +8.5 (-105), Penn State -8.5 (-115)
Total: 54.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: SMU +260
Hear T.J. and Gary breakdown SMU’s chances in the CFP opening round at Penn State off “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Will weather be deciding factor for Nittanies?
This cold-weather environment will be challenging for SMU. Can the Mustangs play with the speed they like to play at? SMU runs an up-tempo offense and wants to get its skill players in open space. Penn State’s defense did not handle Oregon’s speed in the Big Ten Championship Game, but that was indoors on a fast track in perfect conditions. This outdoor game in bitter cold could be very different for SMU, forcing the Ponies into potentially more conservative game plan in the first quarter. SMU might need a quarter or 20 minutes to settle in, by which point Penn State might already have a 7-0 or 10-0 lead, and it could be off to the races for the Nittany Lions, who by all appearances have the better team.
If there’s a matchup where SMU simply has to stand up to PSU on a purely physical level, it’s when Penn State tries to run the ball. SMU contained Clemson’s rushing attack in the ACC Championship Game. If the Ponies can limit Penn State’s ground game, they can make the Nittany Lion offense more predictable, which would enable SMU to keep this game close and cover.
Our recommendation: Watch the first 10 minutes. See if the game is breaking in one direction or another. The line of 8.5 points is baiting people to take SMU plus the points, but if the Mustangs get an early field goal, you could grab Penn State -6.5 and could find in-game value. If Penn State looks very comfortable in the first 10 minutes, minus-8.5 might look like a steal. Just pay close attention in the first quarter and see where this game is leading you.