College Football Preview for Penn State-Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 31
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ESPN/ABC
The first of the four College Football Playoff quarterfinals is a New Year’s Eve game in Glendale, Arizona. Boise State returns to the Fiesta Bowl, where it has made so many magic memories over the past few decades. Boise State is 3-0 in Fiesta Bowl games. The Broncos pulled off underdog upsets, winning outright all three times as an underdog. They beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, and Rich Rodriguez’s Arizona Wildcats in the December 2014 Fiesta Bowl (separate from the January 2014 Fiesta Bowl). Boise State was an outright underdog all three times and cashed a plus-money ticket on the moneyline, not to mention the spread. A lot has changed in college football since 2014.
A decade ago, Bryan Harsin was Boise State’s coach. In the two previous Fiesta Bowl wins in Glendale, Chris Petersen was Boise State’s head coach. This time, it’s Spencer Danielson, in his first full season at the helm. Can Danielson and his staff find answers for a Penn State team which has been a consistent top-15 national program under coach James Franklin?
We’ll dive into the specifics of this matchup soon, but we first have to make a general point about all of these playoff quarterfinal games: First, this is an entirely new thing at the FBS level (not the FCS, which has done this sort of thing for a long time). We have four teams coming off wins against four teams which have had byes and have had extra time to either rest or get rusty. We now move to neutral-site games after having had on-campus games. How will teams react to these various realities? It’s a fascinating question underlining all four of the playoff quarterfinals, and bettors need to consider how all of this will shake out.
Penn State Nittany Lions-Boise State Broncos Odds
Spread: Penn State -10.5 (-115), Boise State +10.5 (-105)
Total: 52.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Boise State +350
Hear T.J. And Jason Powers preview this Fiesta Bowl matchup in the College Football Playoff off our “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Ingredients For Boise State Possible Upset
The likely keys to this game – which bettors will need to think about – are the quarterbacks. One could say that about a lot of games, but this game really seems to put the signal-callers in the center of the action. Think about Boise State’s offense. Penn State will be intent on stopping Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty, the best running back in the country. How can Boise State force Penn State to back off Jeanty? Throw the ball downfield for big plays. A good Boise State passing game with Maddux Madsen can completely change the game in the Broncos’ favor.
Then shift to Penn State. The Nittany Lions received a couple of Christmas gifts from SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings in the first round of the playoff. Two pick-sixes meant Penn State quarterback Drew Allar really didn’t have to do anything to win. He was irrelevant to that game’s outcome. Now, if Boise State’s offense plays well, Allar will need to be ready to exceed what the Broncos do. This figures to be a game Allar will need to win.
If you therefore have a strong take on which quarterback will play better, you should bet on that team.
Penn State likely wins, but if you’re thinking about the spread, 10.5 points is a lot for a Penn State defense which got smoked by Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. Boise State could play a clunker, but we wouldn’t expect a clunker. Penn State winning by a solid 10 points is still a Boise State cover. We’d lean to BSU but would advise you to think about a live bet after watching the first quarter and getting a better feel for how this game will unfold.