Friday, Nov. 29
12:05 p.m. Eastern, 9:05 a.m. Pacific
FOX
The Boise State Broncos play Oregon State, one of the two leftover Pac-12 teams which agreed to a Mountain West game schedule in 2024. This is not a Mountain West Conference game. It’s the game which replaces Oregon State’s usual late-season rivalry game against Oregon. Because Oregon State-Oregon is no longer a conference game, that annual battle was moved to September. Oregon State is playing Boise State on rivalry weekend instead. It’s odd, but it also makes a certain degree of sense when you consider that Boise State was always a favorite to make the Mountain West Championship Game. The Broncos have in fact done that. Playing a nonconference game the week before the conference championship game gives Boise State a chance to rest some starters if it wants to be fresh for the MWC title game the following week.
The nuance – and plot twist – for this game is that the Mountain West title game isn’t the only goal for Boise State. The Broncos are in the race for a College Football Playoff berth. They do have to win this game. However, they are significantly better than Oregon State and still might be able to grab a big lead in the third quarter and rotate out their starters. That’s the goal for BSU here: Play hard in the first half, tuck the game away, and play the final 20 minutes with backups so that the team isn’t overextended heading into the conference championship game, most likely against UNLV (possibly against Colorado State if the Rebels lose to Nevada and Colorado State wins). This larger situation forms the basis for your betting choice in this game.
Oregon State Beavers-Boise State Broncos Odds
Spread: Oregon State +19.5 (-115), Boise State -19.5 (-105)
Total: 56.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Oregon State +700
Hear T.J. Rives and Gary Segars go over this game and all of their underdogs on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Boise State Final Regular Season Statement?
In the bigger picture, Boise State does want to be efficient in this game. It does not want to get roped into a tight game in the fourth quarter. Yet, that’s what BSU has been doing in recent weeks: playing close games against opponents it should beat by larger margins. Boise State beat Nevada by only a touchdown, struggled in the first half against San Jose State, and then escaped Wyoming by only four points. BSU has not played well of late. It has won, but it hasn’t looked good. There has to be some urgency for the Broncos to get on top of a game and make quick work of Oregon State. That could play into Boise State covering the 19.5-point spread.
On the other hand, if Boise State leads by anywhere from 14 to 24 points midway through the second half or early in the fourth quarter, you might not see the Broncos push especially hard to maintain or increase the margin of victory. They could coast home, knowing they need to be fresh for the following week’s conference championship game.
The spread is therefore a minefield worth avoiding. The best bet here might be the under. Oregon State has a bad offense, but it lit up a terrible Washington State defense for 41 points. Boise State could shut down Oregon State’s offense but might not score a ton of points itself. Think of a final score in the area of 34-13 or 30-10. If the game goes over 56.5 points, chances are it will be because Boise State blows the doors off this game. So, if you do want the over, Boise State minus the points is a good companion play. However, the under seems like the safer play in isolation.