Saturday, Nov. 2
12:10 p.m. Eastern, 9:10 a.m. Pacific
Fox
The biggest game of Week 10 in college football is the Fox Big Noon Saturday showcase in Happy Valley. It’s No. 3 Penn State against No. 4 Ohio State. The winner of this game very likely makes the College Football Playoff. Penn State can frankly lose this game and still be in very good shape for the playoff, but if Ohio State loses, the Buckeyes will be on thin ice for the playoff and would likely need to win the remainder of their games. A loss here for OSU would also put Ryan Day in some degree of discomfort relative to his job security in Columbus. We won’t say “hot seat,” but we will say that Day’s job could become a discussion point. It’s a huge game, and there’s a lot to unpack about this contest.
We have to start with Penn State’s quarterback situation. Drew Allar’s status is uncertain. Beau Pribula was able to take over the offense in Allar’s absence at Wisconsin and lead PSU to a second-half comeback win. Pribula is a running quarterback who offers a change of pace. He can throw short passes but would not be able to stretch the field with the vertical pass the way Allar can. Allar gives Penn State more raw potency, but Pribula gives Penn State versatility. If Allar is able to play, will James Franklin simply hand over the keys to Allar, or will he consider a mixed plan in which Allar and Pribula both take snaps and try to keep Ohio State’s defense off balance?
Hear T.J. Rives and Gary Segars breakdown this massive showdown in Happy Valley, PA on the latest “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
For Ohio State, the big crisis is at left tackle, where the starter and primary backup have both gotten injured. Reshuffling will need to take place along the line, which unavoidably means that players will play at spots other than what they are used to. Ohio State has to find a comfort zone and a successful formula in its offensive line rotation. Penn State will try to pounce on this point of uncertainty and turn it into a significant weakness which centrally shapes the outcome of this game.
Ohio State Buckeyes-Penn State Nittany Lions Odds
Spread: Ohio State -3 (-120), Penn State +3 (+100)
Total: 45.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Penn State +140
Ohio State Still Favored On The Road?
The Ohio State Buckeyes are vulnerable. They barely beat Nebraska at home and clearly looked limited on offense, with their left tackle being a turnstile against a good Nebraska pass rush. If Nebraska can hold Ohio State to 21 points in Columbus, Penn State will certainly think it can hold Ohio State under 21 points in State College.
The concern for Penn State is not what it does on defense, but what it does on offense with its quarterback situation up in the air. You will want to get reliable information on Drew Allar’s playing status before you make a play on this game. However, the early read on this game is that the under looks very attractive. A 24-21 score cashes the under. A game played lower than that will cash. As long as this game isn’t played in the mid-20s, the under will cash. This game could easily become a 17-13 rockfight. That’s probably where to start on this game. Penn State getting a look as an underdog is certainly attractive, given how exposed OSU is at left tackle.