Saturday, Oct. 12
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
NBC, Peacock
Here we go. This is the biggest of big games in Week 7. There are a lot of attractive games on the schedule, such as Oklahoma-Texas, Ole Miss-LSU, and Penn State-USC, but this is the ultimate showdown between two top-three teams just behind No. 1 Texas. With Georgia and Alabama both losing, these two teams have risen recently in the rankings, making this a centerpiece with big College Football Playoff implications.
We start with the larger overall point that in the offseason, this game probably felt like the kind of contest in which the winner would be decided by the team which makes more big plays, hitting more downfield strikes or unleashing its running game to greater effect. Now, as we arrive at game week in the middle of October, this game feels very different from how it was perceived in the middle of summer. Ohio State-Oregon might come down to the team which commits fewer huge mistakes, as opposed to the team which hits home-run plays down the field. That change in perception lends extra layers of intrigue and mystery to this game.
Ohio State Buckeyes-Oregon Ducks Odds
Spread: Ohio State -3 (-115), Oregon +3 (-105)
Total: 52.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Oregon +130
Hear T.J. preview this Oregon-Ohio State Big Ten battle on the newest “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
The chances for an Oregon slight upset
The Oregon Ducks seemingly had a big edge over the rest of the Big Ten going into the 2024 season. Dillon Gabriel is a winner. That’s not an opinion, that’s a fact. Gabriel has won big (double-digit-win seasons) at UCF and Oklahoma before transferring to Oregon. Gabriel sensed that Oregon had national championship potential, unlike Oklahoma, and he left the Sooners for the West Coast and Dan Lanning. Oregon entered the season as highly-ranked as it was because Gabriel gave the Ducks a perceived advantage. While Oregon is unbeaten heading into this game, it’s not as though Gabriel has had a very strong season. Gabriel has continuously thrown interceptions and has not been the elite thrower the Ducks hoped he would be. Oregon is fortunate that the Ducks’ competition has been relatively modest in quality, and also that in the one big challenge against Boise State, Oregon was able to run two kicks back for touchdowns. Oregon special teams rescued the Ducks in that game against Boise State. Gabriel was not the reason the Ducks pulled out that win.
Now, Gabriel has to go up against a defense many believe is the very best in the country. Coordinator Jim Knowles has elite defensive talent at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have throttled inept opposing offenses. Now they will have to face a tougher offense when they go up against Oregon, but with Gabriel not playing his best football, OSU should feel very confident that it can limit the Ducks’ offense and play this game the way it wants to. If Ohio State can force two Gabriel turnovers, that could be the whole ballgame right there.
Not to be ignored is Ohio State’s modest offense, led by Will Howard, who is not an elite quarterback. Going into a deafening Autzen Stadium, Howard’s main task will not be to make huge plays; it will be to avoid the turnovers which can instantly ignite Oregon’s offense and put OSU in a ditch. The more you look at this game, the key is less about making excellent plays but more about making routine plays and avoiding basic mistakes. Oregon at home is a solid underdog play, but the overall sense about this game is that it’s a very hard one to bet on in any direction. The under 52.5 seems to make sense, but of course, a pick-six or blocked kick could instantly change that equation, too.