Saturday, Sept. 20
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
CBS
The Big Ten has two terrific showcase games on Saturday in Week 4 of the 2025 season. One is Michigan at Nebraska in Lincoln. Late-September conference games aren’t necessarily more important than November conference games, but they stand out because no one really knows what to expect. Later in the season, teams are known entities and have the stakes very cleanly laid out before them. In September, teams and players are a lot more mysterious. Fans, coaches and analysts want to know what they are seeing. There’s a lot of uncertainty attached to this game, and Vegas agrees, with the spread being small and the moneyline prices being very close to each other.
Michigan-Nebraska asks questions of two quarterbacks
Bryce Underwood versus Dylan Raiola will have everyone’s attention
One of the central reasons this game is so hard to predict is that it’s similarly difficult to know how well the two quarterbacks will play. Bryce Underwood was great against Central Michigan but below average versus Oklahoma. Dylan Raiola struggled against Cincinnati but looked sharper against cupcake opponents. Being good against weak opposition doesn’t really indicate anything, and both quarterbacks did not play well against Power Four teams.
If bettors are leaning to Nebraska, they are likely leaning to the line of thought which says Underwood — as a freshman — will get rattled on the road in front of a Big Red sellout in Lincoln.
If bettors are leaning to Michigan, they will probably say that Dylan Raiola is utterly untrustworthy right now. If Raiola couldn’t play well against a mediocre Cincinnati defense, why would he play significantly better against Michigan’s proven defense?
It is more than reasonable to not only base one’s bet in this game on projected quarterback performance, but to also make one’s bet a fade. This bet should focus less on one’s trust in the expected winner, much more in distrust of the expected loser.
Michigan Wolverines-Nebraska Cornhuskers Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Michigan -2.5 (-110), Nebraska +2.5 (-110)
Total: 46.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Nebraska +110
The fact that the spread is less than a field goal makes the game, for all intents and purposes, a question of which team will win outright. There is always a chance a game could be decided by one or two points, but that’s not something a football bettor should ever rely on in a pregame bet. In-game live bets are different, especially in the fourth quarter.
What is the right angle to take, other than an evaluation of the quarterbacks in this game? Sherrone Moore being suspended for this game is something a lot of people will consider. Weirdly, Michigan’s regular head coach not being on the sideline in this game could actually work to the Wolverines’ advantage. Moore presided over a cautious, losing game plan against Oklahoma. When he was not around for the Central Michigan game, the UM staff gave Bryce Underwood more freedom, and the Wolverine offense thrived. Maybe that’s the angle: Michigan’s adjusted coaching staff will enable UM to play with the freedom needed to win.
All in all, though, our final recommendation is that in a game soaked with so much uncertainty, the best move is to not bet on this contest.