Miami-Texas A&M
Saturday, Dec. 20
12:05 p.m. Eastern, 9:05 a.m. Pacific
ABC, ESPN
Miami-Texas A&M is easily the best of the four first-round CFP games. This College Football Playoff first round is fresh. It’s not a rematch the way Ole Miss-Tulane and Oklahoma-Alabama are. It’s not the mismatch Oregon-James Madison looks like on paper. These two programs were strong in the 1980s. One could easily have imagined this game as a Cotton Bowl showdown 40 years ago. It turns out that the winner of this game will qualify for the Cotton Bowl in a playoff quarterfinal on New Year’s Eve in Arlington. The winner faces No. 2 seed Ohio State.
Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame was honored by the playoff committee. Now the Hurricanes get their big chance to prove that the committee was right. Miami has a strong defense and running game and will want to lean on those two pillars in a road game in College Station. Texas A&M lost just one game, but that one loss was enough to push the Aggies down to a No. 7 seed with no first-round playoff bye. A&M looked fairly ordinary late in the season. You might recall that the Aggies fell behind a bad South Carolina team by 27 points before rallying to win. This is a huge proving-ground moment for both sides. The winner will feel it really did achieve something. The loser will walk away from this season feeling it didn’t fulfill its potential. Making the playoff is good, but losing in the first round would be an empty sensation for the team which comes up short in this one.
Miami-Texas A&M shapes up as a game of QB mistakes
Carson Beck and Marcel Reed both have to avoid the big turnover
Miami-Texas A&M figures to be a game which will turn not on a positive play, but on a mistake. Carson Beck and Marcel Reed are mistake-prone quarterbacks. They can make big plays, but they will put the ball in jeopardy and have shown they are not airtight and safe in their decision-making processes. Coach Mario Cristobal of Miami and counterpart Mike Elko of A&M have to drill it into their quarterbacks’ heads: Take risks only when you absolutely have to. Don’t try to be the hero unless the situation is dire and you have to throw caution to the wind.
This is why the Miami-A&M game feels like such a headache from a betting standpoint: One really awful interception in a bad spot — a pick-six or a play which sets up the other team to score seven points with a short field — could instantly change the game. Can you say with confidence as a bettor that you know which of the two quarterbacks will make the game-defining error?
Miami Hurricanes-Texas A&M Aggies Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the “3 Dog Thursday” Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Miami +3.5 (-115), Texas A&M -3.5 (-105)
Total: 48.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Miami +140
The volatility of the quarterbacks, Carson Beck and Marcel Reed, makes this game a betting quagmire. You could get stuck in the muck if the team you’re backing has the quarterback who makes the huge blunder in this contest. The lean is to Miami relative to the spread, with the Canes getting more than a field goal. The lean is also to the under in a game the defenses should largely control. Yet, this game doesn’t feel entirely safe or certain in any direction. You would certainly want to watch the first quarter, maybe even the first half, before making a live in-game bet.