Miami-Ole Miss
Thursday, Jan. 8
7:35 p.m. Eastern, 4:35 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
Miami-Ole Miss is the Fiesta Bowl, the first of two College Football Playoff semifinals. The quarterfinals witnessed a lot of what we saw in the first round. Miami certainly maintained the formula it established in the first round. The U carried that winning recipe into the quarterfinals and knocked off No. 2 seed Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. We saw the same physical defense and punishing line play coach Mario Cristobal values above all else. Ole Miss, meanwhile, rallied from nine points down to beat Georgia 39-34 in a thriller in the Sugar Bowl.
Miami-Ole Miss is a game which reflects the new era of college football.
The 12-team CFP playoff has given us parity and balance. It’s no longer just Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Ohio State, the way it was for much of the past 10 years. Those four schools dominated college football from 2014 — the first year of the playoff — through 2022. Only one school, LSU in 2019, broke through that four-team barrier to win a national title in that nine-season span. College football had a true power elite, and we still saw Ohio State win the national title last season. This year, it’s a very non-traditional final four. Miami is the most accomplished school of the four, but its last national title was in the 2001 season, roughly a quarter of a century ago. Ole Miss’s last national championship was over 60 years ago. Oregon and Indiana, the teams playing in the other CFP semifinal, have never won a national championship. It’s a new age of parity, so this game fits into the new patterns of college football.
Miami-Ole Miss is defense versus offense
Hurricanes-Rebels is also a matchup of power versus finesse
Miami-Ole Miss is a delicious contrast in styles. Miami versus Texas A&M and then Ohio State were both instances in which the defenses were always likely to control the game. Both games went under the total, and we told you to take the under 42.5 in Miami-Ohio State, which hit (38 points, 24-14 Miami). Miami-A&M and Miami-Ohio State were games in which the quarterback who made more and bigger mistakes was going to lose. That happened with Marcel Reed of Texas A&M and Julian Sayin of Ohio State both faltering in important moments. Carson Beck hasn’t needed to be great for Miami; he has simply needed to play mistake-free football, and he has. Miami leans on its defense, with Rueben Bain earning a ton of money and shooting up NFL draft boards with his dominance for the Canes.
This game against Ole Miss is different from the A&M and Ohio State games for Miami. Trinidad Chambliss is an electric playmaking quarterback for Ole Miss. He carried the Rebels past Georgia with an array of dazzling plays. Ole Miss can’t think about merely avoiding mistakes. The Rebels have to play this game wide-open and take risks. They simply have to hit home runs when they try to be aggressive. Ole Miss can’t play it safe. The Rebels need to trust their quarterback to do the special things A&M’s and Ohio State’s quarterbacks were not equipped to do. Miami has to win with defense. Ole Miss has to win with offense. We will see which side prevails.
Miami Hurricanes-Ole Miss Rebels Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the “3 Dog Thursday” Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Miami -3.5 (-105), Ole Miss +3.5 (-115)
Total: 51.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Ole Miss +145
The Miami formula of strong defense and no turnovers from Carson Beck is really hard to bet against. Miami is the more physical team at the line of scrimmage. The only way Ole Miss wins is if Chambliss has another amazing game, but Miami’s defense is a lot better than Georgia’s. Plus, Ole Miss coaches are distracted by the LSU-Lane Kiffin situation. That certainly could not have helped the Rebels in their game preparations. Miami minus 3.5 is a strong play. Don’t overthink it.