Miami-Ohio State
Wednesday, Dec. 31
7:35 p.m. Eastern, 4:35 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
Miami-Ohio State is the Cotton Bowl, the first of four College Football Playoff quarterfinals. The first round never did look appealing, with two regular-season rematches and James Madison getting a spot everyone knew was not fully deserved. It’s not even a criticism of James Madison, merely a reflection of the reality that JMU didn’t play elite opponents during the regular season. The first round was ordinary, but when this CFP bracket came out, everyone could see the quarterfinals had the potential to be special. Miami-Ohio State is a battle of two brand-name programs who will forever be linked by their controversial and contentious 2003 Fiesta Bowl game for the BCS national championship.
Miami thought it had won the game and a repeat title, but a late flag thrown against the Hurricanes halted the UM celebration which had begun on the field. The problem was less that the flag was thrown, more that it came so late after the actual play. Nevertheless, it’s the thing everyone remembers about that game over 20 years ago. It forms the natural backdrop to this moment, in which Ohio State is the established powerhouse and defending national champion while Miami is trying to regain the level of prominence it had back then.
Miami-Ohio State is very similar to Canes’ game vs Texas A&M
Carson Beck and Julian Sayin can win by not making the key mistake
Miami-Ohio State is a lot like Miami-Texas A&M. Miami is here in the quarterfinals because Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed made more mistakes than Carson Beck in an ugly 10-3 slog. Carson Beck did not play a great game by any means — Miami scored just 10 points in what was a hard-to-watch battle — but he didn’t commit killer miscues and allowed the opposing team’s quarterback to implode. Given that Ohio State and Julian Sayin scored just 10 points in their most recent game, a 13-10 loss to Curt Cignetti and Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, it stands to reason that the main task for these quarterbacks is not to make huge plays but to avoid making huge blunders. The quarterback which plays the cleaner game is likely to be the winner, advancing to the Fiesta Bowl and the playoff semifinals one week later.
Miami Hurricanes-Ohio State Buckeyes Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the “3 Dog Thursday” Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Miami +9.5 (-110), Ohio State -9.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Miami +280
The Miami-Texas A&M game was unusually bad, given all the missed field goals and offensive face-plants in that contest, but the low-scoring nature of that game was not surprising, given the inconsistency of the quarterbacks involved. Carson Beck versus Marcel Reed was a middleweight bout, not a heavyweight fight. It’s very similar here, with Beck going up against a good but still relatively inexperienced freshman, Julian Sayin. Ohio State doesn’t ask Sayin to do everything for the Buckeye offense. He is still a work in progress who will have a much higher ceiling in 2026. For now, Ohio State asks Sayin to make the simple, high-percentage pass. Miami’s defense is likely to contain Sayin.
On the other side of the ball, if Carson Beck could score just 10 points against Texas A&M, he doesn’t figure to put up a ton of points on an Ohio State defense which has been strong all year long. If Miami scores just 10 points in this game, the under 42.5 is likely to hit, since Ohio State is unlikely to score at least 33 points against the UM defense. The spread is hard to pin down, but the under makes total sense here.