Saturday, Sept. 27
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
ABC
The first of two huge SEC football games kicks off in Oxford. Before the Alabama-Georgia prime-time cage match, Ole Miss hosts LSU in a Southern showcase. LSU’s Brian Kelly and Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin desperately need this game for the simple reason that the SEC gauntlet offers very little relief over the course of two months. Bagging a win now creates leverage for later in the season. That leverage is all-important in the playoff chase.
LSU offense has to get going
Brian Kelly knows his Tigers won’t win rockfights every time
This really is the most central aspect of Saturday’s game in the Deep South: LSU has beaten Clemson and Florida so far this season. Those are high-profile wins. If you had told LSU fans before the season that their Bayou Bengals would win each of those games, they would have been very happy. To be sure, wins are great no matter how they occur, but sometimes, wins can still reveal weaknesses and limitations. LSU knows it has not come close to reaching its expected standard on offense. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and his offense have been ordinary to start the season. This offense hasn’t come close to scoring 30 points (let alone 40) against quality opposition. LSU has leaned entirely on its defense to win games thus far. At some point — it could be against Ole Miss — an opposing offense will play well and put up 30 points. Can LSU win a 35-30 or 38-35 type of game if it happens? Nussmeier has a lot of room to grow and improve. LSU has to be better to maintain a playoff trajectory this season. Brian Kelly has to get more from the Tiger offense, especially the passing game.
LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: LSU +1.5 (-105), Ole Miss -1.5 (-115)
Total: 56.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: LSU +105
The spread is almost commensurate with a pick ’em. Pick the winner and you win the bet, unless Ole Miss wins by one and only one point.
On one hand, LSU could be due for a comedown. The Tigers have gotten away with ordinary offensive performances and could be caught flat-footed and unprepared if Ole Miss responds with an early flurry of points. If you do think Ole Miss will get off to a good start, you should take the Rebels, if only because LSU does not offer strong indications that it will be able to keep up in a shootout or erase a double-digit deficit. The case for LSU is connected to a clear belief that the Tigers can contain the Ole Miss offense for most of this game, if not all of it.
Ole Miss faces offensive questions of its own. Trinidad Chambliss, a former FCS quarterback, will get the start in this game. Lane Kiffin faced enough uncertainties going into game week that he felt he had to make a new choice for this contest. Ole Miss did well against Arkansas, but LSU is a step up in weight class. This game feels volatile enough to stay away from it. Waiting for a live bet in the third or fourth quarter could potentially offer a real opportunity.