Saturday, Sept. 28
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
Peacock
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish remember what happened in Louisville last year. Notre Dame was beaten up and bullied by the Cardinals, losing as an outright favorite in one of several ACC games the Irish play each season. The score was 7-7 at halftime, but then Louisville outscored Notre Dame 26-13 in the second half, 16-7 in the fourth quarter, en route to a 33-20 win. Jeff Brohm scored one of the biggest wins of his first season at Louisville, while Marcus Freeman endured a very tough loss in his second year on the job at Notre Dame.
One year later, the two sides reunite with different quarterbacks. Riley Leonard takes over from Sam Hartman for Notre Dame, while Tyler Shough replaces Jack Plummer under center for Louisville. With the different casts of characters involved, and with the game being in South Bend this year instead of Kentucky, will the fundamental dynamics of this matchup change? That’s the question on everyone’s mind in a game Notre Dame must win in order to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Louisville Cardinals-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds
Spread: Louisville +6.5 (-110), Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Louisville +185
Notre Dame has to be wary
If you know your betting history – not in terms of whether you won or lost versus the spread, but in terms of knowing who was favored and by how much in a given game of note – you might recall that Notre Dame went off as a 6.5-point favorite at Louisville last year. That was the line at kickoff time in multiple sportsbooks for the 2023 UL-ND contest. Louisville wound up covering that spread very easily and cashing a moneyline ticket as an underdog. Here we are, one year later, and the odds have not changed. It’s still Notre Dame by 6.5 points, with Vegas simply daring everyone to bet that Notre Dame can and will win by exactly one touchdown. Notre Dame might not blow out Louisville, but it can win by one touchdown. That’s the bait Vegas is dangling in front of bettors. Should you take it?
Hear T.J. and Gary talk Louisville’s chances at the upset at Notre Dame on “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
It’s true that Louisville has played a bunch of home games so far this season and that this is the Cardinals’ first big road test. It could easily be the case that Louisville – like other college teams which finally go on the road after enjoying home cooking for a prolonged period of time – get rattled and play with far less certainty and precision than what they displayed at home. Imagining a scenario in which Notre Dame wins by seven points is not that hard. It could happen. However, is it likely to happen?
Louisville matched Georgia Tech a week ago
Louisville just did handle a solid Georgia Tech team. That was a physical game in which Georgia Tech asked a lot of questions to the Cardinals. Louisville had answers. Georgia Tech might not be an elite team, but remember that coach Brent Key has had a very good record in games against ranked opponents at Georgia Tech. Don’t undervalue that win for Louisville, which held up well on defense and made timely plays on offense.
What is hard to shake here is that Louisville boss Jeff Brohm is a better head coach than Marcus Freeman. What is also impossible to deny is that Notre Dame’s offense has struggled at home against Mid-American Conference opponents Northern Illinois and Miami of Ohio. Louisville’s defense might not be great, but it certainly isn’t terrible. It’s improbable that Notre Dame is going to gain separation from Louisville. This game should come down to the final possession, one way or another, and that likely means Louisville covers. The Cardinals might not win outright, but they should fit inside the spread, probably in a three- or four-point game. Louisville plus the points looks like the best play, though the under should also get some consideration as well.