Saturday, Oct. 26
8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific
ESPN2
The Kansas Jayhawks are 2-5. The Kansas State Wildcats are 6-1. Open and shut case, right? Well, you might think so, but then you need to realize that this is a rivalry game. What’s the old saying about rivalry games? “Throw the records out the window.” This game is going to be a very direct and obvious test of that rivalry game theory and an age-old piece of conventional wisdom.
The process of measuring Kansas’ chances in this game as a 9.5-point underdog is harder – not easier – because of the way in which Kansas has lost games this season. The Jayhawks have not gotten blown out most of the time. The usual way in which Kansas loses games is that the Jayhawks let down their guard on defense in the final two minutes of each half. If you have watched Kansas all season long, you would know that the Jayhawks have consistently allowed touchdowns in the final two minutes of either the first or second half of their games. They play opponents closely but then don’t finish halves and allow games to get away from them.
This brings up the point that if Kansas can make that one change, that one adjustment – not allowing end-of-half or end-of-game touchdowns – it might become a much better team overall, not just in terms of winning games but also in covering point spreads. File that away as you consider how to view this game against Kansas State, a foremost competitor for the Big 12 Championship.
Kansas Jayhawks-Kansas State Wildcats Odds
Spread: Kansas +9.5 (-102), Kansas State -9.5 (-120)
Total: 55.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Kansas +280
Hear T.J. and Gary give their underdog selections on “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Can Jayhawks Hang In?
The Kansas State Wildcats are 6-1, and they have been good, but they have also been volatile this season and have gone through periods in which they lose focus. Kansas State had a disastrous five-minute sequence in which the BYU game – their one loss – got away from them. KSU dominated Colorado but had another terrible 10-minute period of play in which it allowed the Buffaloes to take the lead and nearly pull off a comeback win. The Wildcats were down four but rallied for a go-ahead touchdown to survive their trip to Boulder.
Whether Kansas State – the better team – covers the spread comes down to whether the Cats can avoid that ugly five- or 10-minute sequence in which everything falls apart. If Kansas State plays a complete 60 minutes, it should cover, but that doesn’t consistently happen. The fact that KSU can implode for 10 minutes in a game – even if it plays the other 50 minutes at a high level – should give bettors reason to stay away from this rivalry game and look for better, more certain bets with a higher likelihood of cashing.