Saturday, Nov. 16
10:15 p.m. Eastern, 7:15 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
The magic carpet ride of the 2024 college football season continues in Week 12, as unbeaten BYU takes on Kansas. The Cougars are a good team, but they have also been smiled on by the fates. BYU has had fumble luck this season, with balls bouncing right into the hands of Cougar players instead of bouncing sideways into a defender’s arms. The Cougars received a holding call on a 4th and 10 against Utah last week, paving the way for BYU to drive down the field and kick a last-second field goal in a 22-21 win over the Utes in a game BYU trailed 21-10. BYU has played numerous games which have gone down to the wire in 2024. The Cougars struggled against an Oklahoma State team which is still winless in Big 12 play. OSU led BYU into the final minute, and the Cougars were able to score on a 2-minute-drill drive to escape defeat.
BYU hasn’t been a dominant team, but it has been able to consistently pull games out of the fire in the fourth quarter. The Cougars walk up to the ledge but have not fallen over it. Their 2024 season has been a continuous high-wire act, and they are still alive, still unbeaten, still in line to play for the Big 12 championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
One obvious question surrounding BYU might affect the composition of the playoff itself: If BYU does not win the Big 12 title game, will the Cougars get into the playoff if they go 12-0 and then lose that conference championship game to finish 12-1? If BYU wants to give itself an added path to the playoff, it likely has to go 12-0 so that the Big 12 Championship Game isn’t an absolute must-win.
Kansas Jayhawks-BYU Cougars Odds
Spread: Kansas +2.5 (-102), BYU -2.5 (-120)
Total: 55.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Kansas +114
Hear more on this game and all the underdog picks from T.J. Rives and Brian Edwards on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
BYU Ripe To Finally Lose?
The obvious betting storyline here is that Kansas is a sub-.500 team while BYU is unbeaten, and yet BYU is favored by less than a field goal at home. This tells you that if the game was played on Kansas’s home field, KU would be the outright favorite, and that on a neutral field, this would be a pick ‘em game. Casual sports fans and casual sports bettors will naturally wonder how that could possibly be the case. Here’s the thing: Kansas was voted as a top-five Big 12 team before the season began. The Jayhawks have had a bitterly disappointing season, but they do have talent, and in recent weeks, they have shown it. They almost beat Kansas State on the road. They hammered Houston by 28. Last week, they beat Iowa State, a team which entered the game with only one loss and was a Big 12 title contender. Kansas is playing its best ball of the year right now, The offense is humming. Coach Lance Leipold has managed to retain the trust of his players. KU has not packed it in for the season and mentally checked out. This is a very, very dangerous team, and given the way BYU has been playing, the Cougars shouldn’t be an overwhelming favorite.
However, for the more serious sports bettors in the crowd, the question is this: Sure, BYU shouldn’t be favored by 10, but isn’t 2.5 a little small as a spread? Shouldn’t this be at least a 3.5-point line if not 4.5? BYU just has to win by three points to cover. It just has to win by a field goal. It’s possible that BYU could win by one or two points, but most of the time, any football win is by at least three points. Basically, a BYU spread pick is not that different from the moneyline price, in which case you might as well go with BYU against the spread. If BYU was a 4.5-point favorite, it would be a much bigger risk to take the Cougars against the spread than on the moneyline. At 2.5, you can just go straight to the spread bet without thinking you’re taking a huge risk by eschewing the moneyline price. BYU -2.5 is the right play.