Saturday, Oct. 26
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
CBS
The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1. They are legitimately in the running for the Big Ten Championship Game and an upper-tier bowl bid. Now, however, comes their big test, a challenge they will be hard-pressed to meet. They have to go into Autzen Stadium and find a way to beat the Oregon Ducks, who are No. 1 in the country and are almost certain to make the College Football Playoff. Oregon was able to beat Ohio State 32-31 in a thriller which went down to the wire two weeks ago. Oregon was able to get better performances from Dillon Gabriel and its offensive line after the Ducks struggled on offense in the first few weeks of the season. Oregon’s coaching staff, led by Dan Lanning, is bringing along the roster as the season moves along. The Ducks looked ragged and rusty in September but have made clear steps forward in October.
Illinois has to take on an opponent which is not only talented and playing at home, but which is displaying good form right now. Oregon could have had a letdown against Purdue on a Friday night, just six days after the Ohio State game. Instead, the Ducks shut out the Boilermakers and were not tested at all. Oregon looks the part.
Illinois will need to play defense at a high level against Oregon. The Illini just held Michigan to seven points, but as great as the Illini played in that game, most of the story was the utter collapse of Michigan’s offense, which has simply not found a good quarterback at any point in the 2024 season. Illinois can’t play as well as it did against Michigan and expect that to be enough versus Oregon. Illinois will have to be several notches better than it was versus Michigan. The Illini face a genuinely good quarterback and a legitimately strong passing game. The Illini secondary will be tested at a far higher level than anything Michigan was able to offer. Oregon poses a much bigger and more imposing threat. Let’s see how Illinois stacks up against a genuinely strong opponent.
Illinois Fighting Illini-Oregon Ducks Odds
Spread: Illinois +21.5 (-115), Oregon -21.5 (-105)
Total: 54.5 (Over -112, Under -108)
Underdog moneyline: Illinois +920
Hear T.J. and Gary talk Oregon-Illinois and all the underdog match-ups they like on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Does This Have Oregon blowout written all over it?
The Oregon Ducks are hitting their stride. They have raised the bar dramatically compared to the mediocre level of football they put forward in September. Oregon should be able to score at least 30 points in this game, which makes the centerpiece of this betting discussion whether Illinois can score at a reasonable level. Oregon just shut out Purdue, so the Ducks are bringing the heat on defense. Illinois scored 21 points against Michigan on a day when Michigan’s offense put its defense in bad positions. If Illinois had a better offense, it would have scored at least 31 to 35 points versus Michigan.
The Illini can’t get dominated on offense if they are going to cover the spread. If Illinois scores just 14, Oregon should at least get into the mid-30s and could get into the low 40s. If you’re thinking about taking Illinois, you need to be confident that Illinois can find at least 21 points in this game (Oregon 42, Illinois 21, would be an Illinois cover).