Saturday, Nov. 9
3:35 p.m. Eastern, 12:35 p.m. Pacific
ABC
The Georgia Bulldogs are living on the edge. They beat Florida by 14 points last week, but the game seemed a lot closer than the final score might indicate or suggest. Georgia was extremely lucky that Florida quarterback D.J. Lagway got injured in the first half. With Graham Mertz unavailable to play, the Gators had to turn to a third-stringer for the majority of the game. The Gators were severely undermanned on offense and just didn’t have a realistic chance of winning once Lagway left. Georgia should have been able to win this game by 28 points or something close to that.
Instead, the game was still competitive – a one-score game – in the fourth quarter before Georgia finally put it away. Why did the Dawgs not blow out Florida even when they had the chance? The answer was and is simple: Quarterback Carson Beck struggled mightily. Interception after interception hijacked Georgia drives and gave Florida multiple lifelines. These were not amazing plays by the Florida defense, either. Beck made bad decisions and did not deliver accurate throws. Georgia is simply not getting the caliber of quarterback play it needs to be supremely successful. Given that UGA already has one loss this season, another loss at Ole Miss would put the Dawgs in jeopardy of missing the College Football Playoff this season.
Ole Miss has two losses, so the Rebels know that if they lose, their playoff chances will evaporate. The Rebels will be fired up. Georgia and Carson Beck need to be ready to meet the challenge in Oxford.
Georgia Bulldogs-Ole Miss Rebels Odds
Spread: Georgia -2.5 (-110), Ole Miss +2.5 (-110)
Total: 54.5 (Over -114, Under -106)
Underdog moneyline: Ole Miss (+110)
Hear T.J. and Kevin Rogers preview their top underdog picks for this week on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Ole Miss Getting points at home
The fact that Georgia is just a 2.5-point favorite against a struggling, inconsistent Ole Miss team which has had a disappointing season – losing at home to Kentucky – is quite an eye-grabbing plot twist. Georgia should be a lot better than Ole Miss, based on program reputation and big-game chops. There’s really no comparison between these two programs in terms of big-game scalps and elite achievement over the past several years. Keep in mind that Ole Miss has never made the SEC Championship Game since the event began in 1992. Georgia has won two national titles in the past three years and has played in several national title games going back to 2017. Why is Georgia favored by less than a field goal?
You probably can guess the answer. Carson Beck. He didn’t play well against Florida. He didn’t play well against Texas. He didn’t play well in the first half against Alabama. He has not been a star performer for Georgia. He has held the team back more than he has helped the team grow and evolve. If you want to be skeptical of Beck, that’s very reasonable and logical. However, Georgia is the big-game team in this contest. Ole Miss is the team with so much to prove. Georgia should be able to control the line of scrimmage. As long as Beck doesn’t become a turnover faucet, Georgia should win by at least three points and thereby cover the spread.