Saturday, Dec. 21
4:05 p.m. Eastern, 1:05 p.m. Pacific
TNT
The College Football Playoff’s first-round Saturday tripleheader continues with this second game, a mid-afternoon kickoff sandwiched between the SMU-Penn State noon game and the nighttime showcase between Tennessee and Ohio State. This is a 12-versus-5 game in the first 12-team playoff. In the NCAA Tournament, 12 seeds regularly pick off 5 seeds, but those games are always played on neutral courts. There’s nothing neutral about this contest. It’s a Texas home game in Austin. That stacks the odds against Clemson, and it’s not the only reason the Tigers are significant underdogs here.
The main reason Clemson faces a tough uphill battle in this game is that its offensive line cannot overpower opposing defensive fronts. We saw this against SMU in the ACC Championship Game. Clemson simply could not run the ball in the final 20 minutes of the game when trying to get first downs and run out the clock. SMU stuffed Clemson and kept getting the ball back. That’s why the Mustangs erased a 31-14 deficit and nearly took that game into overtime.
Texas has one of the best – if not the very best – defenses in the country. The defense has carried the freight for the Longhorns this season. If you watched the Texas A&M game in late November or the SEC title game in early December, you saw why. The Texas offense has sputtered a lot this season, but the defense is utterly reliable and should be able to win its matchup versus the Clemson offense precisely because the Horns should be stronger in the trenches.
The real question is if the Texas offense can come alive in this game. We could have a rockfight in which Texas cannot pull away and Clemson is able to stay relatively close, losing by a touchdown or 10 points.
Clemson Tigers-Texas Longhorns Odds
Spread: Clemson +11.5 (-115), Texas -11.5 (-105)
Total: 51.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Clemson +325
Hear T.J. and Gary breakdown Clemson’s chances at Texas off the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Can Clemson Parlay CFP Experience?
The matchup between the Clemson defense and the Texas offense is the main focus of a betting-oriented preview of Tigers-Longhorns. As stated above, it seems pretty clear that the Texas defense will handle the Clemson offense. The spread bet and the total will be decided by the outcome of the Clemson defense’s matchup versus the Texas offense.
We have to keep in mind that Texas’s two losses this season have come against a Kirby Smart-coached Georgia defense. Does Clemson, a three-loss team which got obliterated by Georgia, have the same quality as Georgia at all 11 positions on the field? Chances are that Texas and Steve Sarkisian will find a matchup they can work with. Therefore, the lean is to Texas here. However, that’s not the best bet you can make with a double-digit spread in play.
The best bet here is the under. Clemson won’t score. Texas might score a modest total of points but is not likely to go crazy. Texas 28-17 hits the under. Texas 31-20 hits the under. Unless Texas scores in the upper 30s, which is unlikely given the way UT has been playing of late, this game is very likely going under the total.