Saturday, Nov. 16
12 p.m. Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific
ESPN
The month of November has been cruel for a few college football teams. The Pitt Panthers are one of them. Pitt was unbeaten through the month of October, but in November, the Panthers are 0-2, losing in a blowout at SMU and then losing at home to a not-very-good Virginia side. The bottom has fallen out for the Pitt offense, which has profoundly struggled. What once looked like a team which can play for the ACC championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff has turned into a team which is unlikely to play in a top-tier bowl game of any kind.
However, if Pitt wanted a game and a situation which could motivate the Panthers and bring out an inspired effort, this is it. Pitt can play spoiler against a Clemson team which is trying to make its way to the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers have two losses, so they won’t get an at-large bid to the playoff. Their only path to the playoff is to make and win the ACC title game, and that path will be closed down if the Tigers lose here in Pittsburgh.
Clemson’s offense has struggled in recent weeks. The offense was thriving earlier in the season, but in recent games, the Tigers have not been able to finish drives. Even in the win over Virginia Tech, Clemson’s offense didn’t look good for most of the day. It scored late but was shut out in the first half before rallying. Everyone is waiting to see if this Clemson offense can get unshackled in the final few weeks of the season and pick up momentum heading into December.
Clemson Tigers-Pitt Panthers Odds
Spread: Clemson -10.5 (+100), Pitt +10.5 (-122)
Total: 54.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Pitt +300
Hear discussion on all the intriguing underdogs for this week on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Is Clemson Fixed or Still Broken From Louisville?
The Clemson offense has not been playing well enough to merit trust with a 10.5-point spread, but then again, the Pitt offense hasn’t been playing well enough to merit any kind of trust whatsoever. Both offenses are struggling, which creates a volatile situation in which one of these two teams could drown in turnovers and hand the game to the other. Our lean on the spread is to Pitt, playing at home with Clemson having to go on the road for a second consecutive week. If we had to make a choice on the spread, it would be Pitt.
Yet, we don’t trust the Pitt offense enough to feel rock-solid about that call. The much better play in this game is on the total. With two scuffling offenses, and with Clemson’s offense being on the road in cold weather, we think a total of 54.5 is way too high. Ask yourself where this game is likely to settle, given that Clemson won 24-14 last week and Pitt lost 24-19 last week. Do you really think this game will be played in the high 20s or low 30s? Do you think the Pitt offense can score 30? Do you think the Clemson offense is likely to score 30? Maybe one of these teams will catch fire on offense, but it’s highly unlikely that both offenses will come to life.
A 30-20 score is still an under. A 31-23 score is still an under. Those scores seem to be the ceiling for what this game can become. A 27-20 or 24-20 score seems far more likely to be the end result for this game. Take the under.