BYU-Cincinnati
Saturday, Nov. 22
8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific
FOX
BYU-Cincinnati is a top-three game in college football this week. The Big 12 remains endlessly interesting. This is not a heavyweight conference, but it is not a boring one, either. Just when you thought the Big 12 might be straightforward and devoid of drama, something happened to stir up the pot and create real multi-directional intrigue late in the season, which is the Big 12’s way of doing things.
Cincinnati had the inside track to the Big 12 Championship Game. The Bearcats simply had to beat Arizona at home to enter this BYU game with the upper hand. If Cincinnati had beaten Arizona, the Bearcats – with a win over BYU – would have moved one win away from locking up a spot in the conference championship game for the right to go to the College Football Playoff. Cincinnati was in position to face BYU at home, beat the Cougars, take care of business on Thanksgiving weekend, and then face Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Instead, Cincinnati’s defense cratered in a discouraging home-field loss to Arizona. This result has allowed Utah, Arizona State, and Houston to get back into the Big 12 race. To be clear, Cincinnati still has a chance to make the Big 12 Championship Game, but the Bearcats do not fully control their destiny. That has changed from a week ago.
BYU-Cincinnati is a game of Big 12 survivor
Cougars, Bearcats are scratching and clawing for Big 12 title game spot
The Cincinnati loss to Arizona was a godsend for Houston, Utah, and Arizona State, as we noted above, but those three teams still need one very big piece of help. It must come in this game. Those three Big 12 chasers now need BYU to lose to Cincinnati. If the Cougars do lose, the Big 12 becomes a wild multi-team scramble for the championship game spot opposite Texas Tech. Multi-team tiebreakers are likely to enter the picture and create a wild Week 14 on Thanksgiving.
If BYU can go into Cincinnati and win, however, it’s heartbreak hotel for the Houston-Utah-ASU trio. BYU, if it can win in Week 13, enters Week 14 knowing that a win puts the Cougars in the Big 12 Championship Game, most likely against Texas Tech in what would be a rematch of a game the Cougars lost earlier this month.
BYU holds the hammer. Three different Big 12 competitors are praying for Cincinnati to come through. It’s a Big 12 showcase in prime time with playoff stakes on the table.
BYU Cougars-Cincinnati Bearcats odds
BYU -2.5 (-115), Cincinnati +2.5 (-105)
Over 55.5 (-110), Under 55.5 (-110)
Underdog moneyline: Cincinnati +115
BYU has not played well away from home this season. The Cougars have trailed by 10 points or more in four different road games in 2025: Iowa State, Colorado, Arizona, and Texas Tech. BYU won three of those four games with second-half rallies, but the point remains that BYU has found it really hard to get off to a good start in Big 12 road games. Cincinnati obviously wants to throw the first punch in this game.
However, Cincinnati’s defense has looked horrible against Utah and Arizona. The Bearcats’ defense is playing poorly at the worst possible time. Cincinnati really hit its stride in October but has regressed since then. It’s hard to trust Cincinnati in this situation.
Which side will win? You might want to go with Cincinnati first-half moneyline and BYU with a third-quarter moneyline or second-half spread, or a similar combination. If sides don’t give you confidence, however, the total is surprisingly low. It seems this game is good enough for at least 60 points if not more. Neither defense is playing well enough to inspire maximum confidence, though BYU’s defense is clearly better right now. Go with the over 55.5, mostly on the belief that BYU will score big. If the game goes under 55.5, that probably favors Cincinnati slightly more.