Saturday, Nov. 30
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
ABC
The first year of the Kalen DeBoer era at Alabama has been a rough ride. What makes this season especially painful for DeBoer is that the rest of the SEC was there for the taking. Texas, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M – they all had flaws and all looked very vulnerable for multiple games. If Alabama and DeBoer had performed better, they would be preparing for the SEC Championship Game. Instead, they are probably out of the College Football Playoff, though with a few results breaking their way, they might still have a chance.
DeBoer also has to be tearing his hair out because he had a quarterback, Jalen Milroe, who has a lot of natural athletic talent. DeBoer did such a great job maximizing Michael Penix’s talent at Indiana and especially Washington. That DeBoer couldn’t enable Milroe to be consistently good has to be a point of immense personal frustration. Yet, that’s the reality. Milroe was awesome when he was on top of his game, as in the Georgia and LSU wins, but he was atrocious in his bad games at Tennessee and last weekend at Oklahoma. Milroe’s volatility was the thing DeBoer was supposed to prevent from happening. Alabama having an inconsistent defense was expected under DeBoer, certainly in Year 1, but DeBoer failing at quarterback development is a real surprise.
DeBoer and Bama now have one game left, and it’s the one that matters a lot to the Alabama fan base: the Iron Bowl. Standing on the other side of the field is Hugh Freeze, who needs a win here to clinch a bowl bid. If Freeze goes 5-7 in 2024, it’s an absolute disaster for Auburn. Freeze needs two weeks of bowl practice to develop his roster for 2025. He needs a win over Alabama to entice a quarterback in the transfer portal to come to AU for next year. Two coaches under intense pressure – and who have fallen short of expectations – are the central figures in this Alabama passion play.
Auburn Tigers-Alabama Crimson Tide Odds
Spread: Auburn +11.5 (-110), Alabama -11.5 (-110)
Total: 52.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Auburn +350
Hear T.J. and Gary discuss the “Iron Bowl” showdown for Saturday off the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Which Alabama Team Will Show Up?
Alabama has such a great amount of variance between its best and worst games. That makes Alabama betting such a hard and tricky task. Is this team going to be great or awful? It’s usually one of the two extremes and not a whole lot in between. Alabama hasn’t been involved in a whole lot of games in which two teams played well at the same time. Bama-Tennessee from October was a game in which two teams played at roughly the same level, but not well. Alabama-South Carolina was similarly sloppy. The close games were games in which Alabama allowed an inferior opponent to hang around, and in some cases win. Alabama’s best games turned into blowouts, or (the Georgia game) games which started out as blowouts before abruptly changing.
In this game, Auburn has to run the ball to win. If Auburn has to throw the ball in predictable passing situations, Payton Thorne is not good enough to beat Milroe. The lean therefore is to Alabama, but as we said above, Crimson Tide games in 2024 are hard to pin down. We recommend you stay away.