Alabama-Indiana
Thursday, January 1
4 p.m. Eastern, 1 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
Alabama-Indiana is the matchup at the 2026 Rose Bowl. This might not be the best pure football matchup among the CFP quarterfinals on paper, but it might be the most interesting for some obvious reasons. This is a matchup between Alabama, a blue blood, and Indiana, a school with barely any achievements of note in a football history of more than 120 years. Alabama has won national championships in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020, while making national championship game appearances three other times over the past decade and making playoff semifinal appearances multiple times in the past 12 years. Alabama has been there and done that several times around, the ultimate heavyweight in college football and the sport’s most robust brand name.
Indiana exists at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Hoosiers started playing college football in 1899 and won one Big Ten championship in over 120 years entering this season. Indiana played in exactly one Rose Bowl nearly 60 years ago. The 1967 team’s journey to the 1968 Rose Bowl against USC was the only real high-end achievement for the Hoosiers in more than a century. Curt Cignetti has come into a barren situation and instantly created a force. He just won Indiana’s first Big Ten title since that 1967 season. He has IU at 13-0 and seeded No. 1 in the CFP.
Alabama is the heavyweight school with the underdog profile. Indiana is the nobody school with the heavyweight profile. It’s a fascinating combination — and inversion — of roles, identities, and expectations. It makes this game unlike any other CFP game, not only this year but in recent memory.
Alabama-Indiana is old-school football
Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson have to let their defenses win
Alabama-Indiana shapes up as a defense-first game. Indiana won the Big Ten title game 13-10 over Ohio State. Alabama locked down Oklahoma in the playoff and used a pick-six to mount a comeback. It’s less a matter of which quarterback makes sensational plays and much more a battle of avoiding key mistakes and stumbles. This game is therefore a lot like Miami-Ohio State, with Carson Beck and Julian Sayin trying to play smart football and secure the pigskin. It’s the same for Simpson and Mendoza. Avoiding interceptions and turnovers is likely to matter more than trying to hit the deep ball downfield or be ambitious in the passing game.
Alabama Crimson Tide-Indiana Hoosiers Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Alabama +7 (-115), Indiana -7 (-105)
Total: 48.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Alabama +200
With rain expected in the forecast for Southern California on January 1, this looks like an under. Indiana is not likely to give up a ton of points, but IU is also not likely to score a bunch against the Bama defense, which is getting healthier with the expanded break between games. Neither quarterback is likely to have a field day in this game, and the conditions are not likely to make things easier for the offenses.
In terms of the spread, the number is currently seven. You could look for the line to move to 7.5 and grab Alabama plus the points. Indiana is more likely to win the game outright and become a moneyline parlay piece, but Alabama plus 7.5 looks like a solid play given that the Tide will have some top defensive players back for this game against an Indiana offense which has struggled against quality opposition, most notably Ohio State a few weeks ago. Under 48.5 and Bama plus 7.5 both look like good ways to go in this game.