Friday, Aug. 29
8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific
FOX
The Auburn Tigers and Baylor Bears play a game which is not expected to have any relevance for the College Football Playoff. Neither team is expected to make a strong push for a top-15 national ranking by season’s end. The importance of this game is connected to the coaching status for both Auburn’s Hugh Freeze and Baylor’s Dave Aranda. Both men can fairly be viewed as being on the hot seat at the start of 2025, though Aranda’s seat is much hotter in a two-way comparison. The fan bases of these schools – which played in New Year’s Six bowls in the past eight years and should rightly expect to compete for conference championships – are restless, and they should be.
This sets the stage for a game neither coach can afford to lose. The odds of Aranda not coaching Baylor in 2026 will skyrocket if the Bears lose at home to Auburn. If Auburn loses, Freeze will risk losing the trust of the Auburn fan base and will be under immense pressure heading into the SEC portion of the season.
This is what we love about college football. In Game 1, in August, two teams and coaches enter a cauldron of anxiety and uncertainty, needing a big result to make their season mean something. Welcome to the season opener.
Auburn And Baylor Help Launch Week One
Auburn Tigers-Baylor Bears Odds
Spread: Auburn -2.5 (-110), Baylor +2.5 (-110)
Total: 58.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Baylor +115
Baylor Ready For Friday
The fact that these teams stand on very shaky ground makes it hard to trust any bet on this game. Part of the art of good, sensible – profitable – betting is knowing which games and bets to avoid. Bettors should bet money on outcomes they feel confident about, and not lose money on games or props they don’t feel sure of. This game is hard to view in a clear-cut way. Which Auburn team will show up? Which Baylor team will show up? How will either side respond to adversity? Two hot-seat coaches could either rise or fall.
Hear a preview of the game with T.J. Rives and Gary Segars off the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
The more one studies this game, the more it feels like a coin flip, exactly the scenario bettors should stay away from. Taking Baylor as the underdog is not unreasonable. A home dog with plus money is alluring. However, if Auburn gets a quick 10-0 lead, the better play might be to get Baylor at something like plus 7.5 points on a live in-game line. All in all, this is a stay-away game. There is no dramatic advantage or proven superstar player on either side of the equation which makes either team a lock. The over-under might be a little too high, but with two teams which are mysteries – to each other and to the larger national college football community – it makes more sense to sit back and observe these teams instead of thinking one already knows how they will react in this situation on Friday night in Waco.