Alabama-Oklahoma
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific
ABC, ESPN
Alabama-Oklahoma is a rematch of a game played one month ago. The Oklahoma Sooners and Brent Venables traveled to Tuscaloosa in November and relied on their defense to pull off a season-changing win against Alabama, a result which ultimately propelled the Sooners into the playoff. They would not be here if they hadn’t turned back the Tide on November 15.
The Crimson Tide and coach Kalen DeBoer made the College Football Playoff because of their high-end wins, and because the committee did not punish them for getting blown out by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama did not even fall on the seed list, staying as a No. 9 seed despite its poor showing in Atlanta two weeks ago. The Tide got into the playoff because of their brand name, also because of Notre Dame’s weak strength of schedule due to Irish opponents Stanford and Syracuse having noticeably bad seasons. Alabama got fortunate, and not for the first time, in a playoff decision. We all remember Alabama being included in 2023 instead of 13-0 Florida State because of the Jordan Travis injury. In 2017, Alabama made the four-team playoff despite not even reaching the SEC Championship Game (Georgia-Auburn).
Now Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb get a second chance to figure out an Oklahoma defense which outplayed and outsmarted them a month ago.
Alabama-Oklahoma figures to be a defense-first game
Sooner defense owned Ty Simpson in November meeting
Alabama’s offense is 0 for 2 under Kalen DeBoer against Brent Venables. It’s just that simple. The Tide couldn’t do anything a year ago under Jalen Milroe, and they couldn’t do much with Ty Simpson at quarterback in November. Alabama committed crucial mistakes which enabled OU to score without needing much help from its mediocre offense. The Tide fed the Sooners points, and that’s the number one thing Alabama has to avoid in this game.
One of the really big plot points of this matchup is not just Ty Simpson’s performance, but his health. He has been battling an injury and has been playing far below 100 percent, a main reason Alabama’s offensive performance has tailed off over the past month or so. Simpson has said he’s ready to go in this game. Will the two-week break after the SEC Championship Game be enough to get Simpson’s body right? A lot of Alabama fans think DeBoer should turn to his backups at quarterback. If Simpson struggles early, will DeBoer pull the trigger?
Alabama Crimson Tide-Oklahoma Sooners Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: Alabama +1.5 (-115), Oklahoma -1.5 (-105)
Total: 40.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Alabama -105
With the game being priced very close to a true pick ’em, this is basically a game where the spread is irrelevant and it’s all about the moneyline. Who wins this game? It’s really hard to trust Alabama and Ty Simpson given how poorly they have played. One could say it’s hard to trust John Mateer and the Sooner offense as well, which is a fair point, but Alabama has not solved Venables, and it doesn’t seem that’s going to change, especially on the road. The under might be a reasonable play, but if Oklahoma gets another pick-six, that could drive up the score even though the Sooner defense should be flying. We recommend Oklahoma as the play here. If you want to add the under, feel free but be warned about defensive scores.