Friday, Sept. 20
8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 p.m. Pacific
Fox
The 2024 college football season moves into Week 4 and the back end of September. For most college football program, that means the start of conference play. The 12-game regular season schedule involves three nonconference games and nine conference games for most teams. You can do the math: Week 4 ushers in a conference-heavy slate in a majority of the power conferences. We begin to get a sense of how teams in various conferences stack up against each other. In the Big Ten, we get a Friday night fight between Bret Bielema – a man who has won big in the Big Ten before at Wisconsin – versus Matt Rhule, a man who led Baylor within an eyelash of the College Football Playoff several years ago and seems to have Nebraska on the mend. It’s a compelling coaching matchup and a clash of teams which might have more upside than previously thought. Ultimately, these teams need to prove that they can reach a high ceiling. No one should be assigning too large a horizon to these teams just yet. They need to show they are the real deal. That’s what makes this game so interesting.
Illinois Fighting Illini-Nebraska Cornhuskers Odds
Spread: Illinois +2.5 (-115), Nebraska -8.5 (-105)
Total: 42.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Underdog moneyline: Illinois +270
How Illinois Hangs In
In sizing up this game, we have to consider the quality of the teams Illinois and Nebraska have played – and beaten – thus far. Kansas was handled by Illinois, but the Jayhawks – who were ranked at the time of their loss to the Illini – subsequently lost to UNLV at home. Maybe Kansas isn’t as big a poker-chip-level win as previously thought for Illinois. On the Nebraska side of things, hammering Colorado might not mean all that much. The Buffaloes don’t look that good. They beat Colorado State comfortably, which might say a lot more about CSU than about Colorado itself. Nebraska will turn some heads and win fresh respect if it can drill Illinois by the same margin (18 points) it handled Colorado. Then we could begin to talk about Nebraska’s upside a little more.
Right now, from where things stand, Nebraska’s offense doesn’t seem ready to take off just yet, especially against an Illinois defense which contained Kansas. Dylan Raiola could eventually become a special quarterback at Nebraska, but right now he is still learning how to play the position. Facing Northern Iowa last week as the lead-in to the Illinois game might not be ideal preparation for Raiola. The over-under is set at 42.5, so this is expected to be a low-scoring game. Nebraska covering the 8.5 points with the under 42.5 also hitting is certainly possible, but that’s a narrow box. We think Illinois plus the points is an attractive underdog play.