USF at Memphis
Saturday, Oct. 25
12 p.m. Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific
ESPN2
This is a moment of great opportunity for the South Florida Bulls. Coach Alex Golesh, a hot commodity on the wide-open coaching carousel, might need an American Conference championship to make himself marketable to the top programs in the country. If he wants to rise all the way to the top of the food chain, this is a game he needs to win. If USF doesn’t beat Memphis, its path to the American championship and the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff berth becomes a lot more complicated.
The American Conference is a jumble of several good teams. USF and Memphis are two of them, but Navy, Tulane, and North Texas are also very much in the conversation. Teams might need head-to-head tiebreakers to decide the two participants in the American Championship Game for the right to make the College Football Playoff. That’s why this game is so important.
South Florida needs to be ready for Memphis’ best shot
USF, Memphis come at this game from different directions
South Florida has been steadily good this season, losing only to a Miami team which is likely to make the playoff. The Bulls have handled business in the rest of their games and have exceeded expectations to this point in the season.
With Memphis, it’s a different story. The Tigers were caught looking ahead to this South Florida game last week. They were a -2500 moneyline favorite and a spread favorite of more than 20 points against UAB. They got outplayed by the Blazers and then botched an endgame goal-line sequence. They are going to be mad entering this game against South Florida. Memphis figures to throw its best punch. Can South Florida withstand that punch, settle into the game, and gradually overtake the Tigers as the day goes on?
USF Bulls-Memphis Tigers Odds
Hear T.J. Rives and Jason Powers preview this game on the “3 Dog Thursday” podcast by clicking play below:
Spread: USF -6 (-110), Memphis +6 (-110)
Total: 58.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Memphis +180
One reason this game is hard to attack relative to the spread is that these teams are volatile. South Florida giving six points might seem like a lot, but USF did blast North Texas on the road, and the Bulls have shown they can win games by large margins. South Florida winning by 10 would not come across as a surprise.
Yet, with Memphis knowing this is a must-win game — if it loses, its main goals and ambitions for the season get destroyed — the Tigers could easily come roaring out of the tunnel. Memphis grabbing an early 7-0 or 10-3 lead would not be a shock, either.
Moreover, even though South Florida hammered North Texas, that game was stuffed with big plays and turnovers. It was an extremely volatile game. We could easily see huge plays that swing the game 14 points (minus-7 for one team and plus-7 for the other). With a game like this, spread betting seems doomed to fail. The total of 58.5 looks like the much better play. Both teams should be able to move the ball and score. Look or points in this one.