USC-Notre Dame
Saturday, Oct. 18
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
NBC, Peacock
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish know that they must beat the USC Trojans to make the College Football Playoff. It’s true that USC also needs this game for its own playoff hopes, but with Notre Dame, there is a greater sense of urgency and finality. There is no possible way Notre Dame can make the playoff with three losses. USC can still compete for the Big Ten title and can still finish with only two losses. Notre Dame is 100-percent done with a loss here in Week 8.
Notre Dame maxed out last season, making the national championship game and re-establishing itself as an elite program in the sport. Falling all the way out of the playoff in 2025, one year later, would be a gut punch for this program and introduce fresh questions about the Fighting Irish’s level of staying power in the sport.
It’s true that USC and Lincoln Riley badly need this game as well, but USC is bringing in a top recruiting class next year — ironically, brought in by new general manager Chad Bowden, who used to work for Freeman at Notre Dame before relocating to Los Angeles. The Trojans can say that 2026 is their make-or-break year. It is reasonable to say that ND has more to lose in this game.
Notre Dame battles injuries going into USC showdown
Fighting Irish are missing a center and a defensive lineman
Notre Dame’s defensive line picked up an untimely injury when Gabriel Rubio was ruled out for this game. Rubio was a very productive player, so his absence figures to be noticeable against a USC offensive line which has played well.
On offense, Notre Dame is without starting center Ashton Craig. He had developed a very strong relationship with quarterback CJ Carr. It is a real question as to how well the offensive line functions without its main traffic cop at the center position. All of this leads us to wonder why ND is a 9.5-point favorite despite these player absences?
USC Trojans-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds
Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:
Spread: USC +9.5 (-115), Notre Dame -9.5 (-105)
Total: 61.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: USC +275
The ND offense should do well against USC, but that doesn’t fully explain why the Irish are nearly a 10-point favorite in this game. USC is missing its top two running backs, Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders, and the Trojans are also missing starting center Kilian O’Connor, but USC’s backups at these positions have all played well. USC hasn’t won in South Bend since 2011, and USC got crushed with Caleb Williams the last time it traveled to Indiana in 2023. Those reasons explain the 9.5-point spread, but purely in terms of the matchup and ND’s injuries, the line doesn’t make sense. This looks like a shootout in which USC should score. Trojans plus the points and the over 61.5 are both very solid plays to make in this game.