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College Football Underdog Preview for Notre Dame-Arkansas

by Matt Zemek
College Football Underdog Preview for Notre Dame-Arkansas

Saturday, Sept. 27
12:05 p.m. Eastern, 9:05 a.m. Pacific
ABC 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish won three College Football Playoff games last season. They went the distance, reaching the College Football Playoff National Championship Game last January. They were one of the final two teams left standing at the end of college football’s longest-ever season. They played 16 games and consistently showed they could play elite defense. Marcus Freeman did a fantastic job with his 2024 team. Everything seemed possible entering the 2025 season.

How quickly things have changed. Notre Dame has already absorbed two losses. The Irish are 1-2, and their only win is over a not-very-good Purdue team. How will Freeman turn things around? He has to win on the road against Sam Pittman, a coach who is squarely on the hot seat at Arkansas. This game does lot lack delicious plot points. It’s a corned beef, cabbage and roast pork feast. It’s Irish versus Hogs in Fayetteville.

Notre Dame has zero margin for error

Shootout is possible between Irish and Hogs

The Notre Dame identity in 2024 under Freeman and defensive coordinator Al Golden was based on playing mistake-free football, letting the other team implode, and wearing down the opposition. That identity has been lost in the first month of 2025. 

Notre Dame’s defense was substandard against Miami, awful against Texas A&M, and less than great versus Purdue. Arkansas lost to Memphis in a game played in the low 30s, with the total going over 60 points. It’s not a shock that the over-under is in the 60s. This is why the over is juiced at -115 relative to the under at -105. Here are the full game odds:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish-Arkansas Razorbacks Odds 

Spread: Notre Dame -4.5 (-105), Arkansas +4.5 (-115) 

Total: 63.5 (Over -115, Under -105) 

Underdog moneyline: Arkansas +160

Hear TJ Rives and Jason Powers break down this game on the 3Dog Thursday Podcast by clicking Play below:

Notre Dame situation is easy to grasp

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a challenge which is both simple and daunting. Conceptually, it’s not complicated: Fix the defense. CJ Carr and the offense are getting the job done, but when 40 points at home are not enough to win against Texas A&M, something is drastically wrong with the defense.

New defensive coordinator Chris Ash replaced Al Golden when the latter went to the NFL to fill the Cincinnati Bengals’ vacancy at that same position. Ash has used a lot more zone coverage than Golden did. The scheme and approach are very different, which is perplexing given how effective the Irish were last year. Why would Notre Dame change something which was working? More than that, why would Marcus Freeman, the man in charge of the program, allow that change to occur? Players certainly seem confused and are not playing with instinctive fluidity. Players who were part of a national runner-up team last season are nowhere close to the standard they set last season.

Notre Dame has to find a reset button, but against an Arkansas offense which can score — in a game the Razorbacks urgently need to win — this game does not line up well for the Irish. Go ahead and bark with an underdog here. Arkansas plus the points is a solid play, and Arkansas on the moneyline is worth taking a shot at.

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