Monday, Jan. 20
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
The long journey to the college football national championship finally ends on Monday in Atlanta. The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff has had a little bit of everything. The quality of football has at times been brilliant, but often sloppy. The first round was a collection of wipeouts. The quarterfinals contained a crazy overtime game and three decisive wins. The semifinals offered two close games with late mistakes deciding the outcomes. Through it all, the No. 8 and 7 seeds – Ohio State and Notre Dame – have made their way to the championship game.
That fact contains an important realization: The way the College Football Playoff bracket is structured in future seasons needs to be a point of concern. You will most likely see a change to the format in which conference champions no longer get automatic first-round byes. Everyone could see that Boise State deserved to be in the playoff, but not as a No. 3 seed. Ohio State and Notre Dame earned their way into this game, but the bracket paths for the top two seeds were actually harder than the paths for No. 6 seed Penn State and No. 5 seed Texas.
The playoff will probably undergo some changes, but all of that can wait. It’s time for Ohio State and Notre Dame to determine a champion. The team that wins will have won four straight playoff games. Notre Dame will go 15-1 if it wins here, while Ohio State will go 14-2 if it prevails.
Ohio State Buckeyes-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds
Spread: Ohio State -8.5 (-110), Notre Dame +8.5 (-110)
Total: 46.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Notre Dame +260
History will be made
Both teams have won three playoff games to get here. They have been dominant at times but needed some help in the semifinals. Notre Dame benefited from an awful Drew Allar interception to beat Penn State. Ohio State needed the Texas offense to sputter and for Steve Sarkisian to call that terrible toss run to the left side on 2nd and goal from the 1. Neither team was at its best in the semifinals after looking better and stronger in the first two games of the playoff.
Notre Dame’s defense has made high-impact plays in every playoff game, snaring timely takeaways to shift the trajectory of a game. These turnovers came early against Indiana, near halftime versus Georgia, and late against Penn State. If you’re thinking about taking Notre Dame against the spread, you’re surely thinking that Will Howard – the Ohio State quarterback who threw a lot of passes into traffic versus Texas in the semifinals – will put some more throws into tight spots and will commit at least one turnover, maybe two. That’s the path for a Notre Dame win.
However, Ohio State learned something from the Michigan debacle in late November. The Buckeyes realized they needed to trust their passing game and make opponents stop Jeremiah Smith and their other elite receivers. That turned around the Buckeyes’ offense, which roared against Tennessee and Oregon before stumbling against Texas. Notre Dame’s secondary will need to hold up in one-on-one coverage against Smith and the other OSU receivers. All in all, both sides are likely to win their share of battles when the Buckeyes have the ball. The question is if Notre Dame can make huge plays in tipping-point moments.
If Notre Dame cannot force Ohio State turnovers, this is likely to be an uphill battle for the Irish. Their offense was contained by Penn State in the first three quarters of the semifinals. Ohio State has a defense which is even better than Penn State’s. Notre Dame has gotten this far despite a low-output passing game from Riley Leonard, whose main strengths is as a runner. Ohio State has the athletes to contain Notre Dame’s ground game. Leonard will have to come up with big throws, which he really hasn’t needed in the playoff since the ND defense has been so strong against weaker offenses.
Ohio State showed against Oregon in a Rose Bowl blowout that it has the most talented players in the country. OSU’s regular-season underachieving is over. This team believes in itself and looks the part of a champion. Notre Dame has had an amazing run under coach Marcus Freeman, but Ohio State is significantly better than the three teams the Irish have defeated to get this far. Ohio State minus the points is the best play.