Thursday, Jan. 9
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
The College Football Playoff had a semifinal round since its inception in 2014. This time, the semifinals are fresh because they are not the product of a selection committee’s decision. They are the result of four quarterfinal outcomes flowing from four first-round games. The first 12-team College Football Playoff is now down to four teams. In past years with a four-team playoff, the two semifinals would be played back to back on the same evening, but now, in the 12-team playoff era, the semifinals will be played on consecutive days. This is the first semifinal, played on Thursday, followed by the Ohio State-Texas second semifinal on Friday. The winner gets an extra day of rest heading into the national championship game on Monday, January 20, in Atlanta.
A special piece of college football history will be made in this game. Because the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds of the playoff encompass what used to be known as the New Year’s Six, the winner of this game will become the first team in the sport’s history to win two NY6 games in the same season. The traditional New Year’s bowls were part of the four-team playoff, but not the national championship game. This season brings us something new in a sport which has existed for over 155 years. Let’s see what happens when seventh-seeded Notre Dame faces sixth-seeded Penn State in the Orange Bowl game in Miami.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish-Penn State Nittany Lions Odds
Spread: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110), Penn State +2.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Penn State +115
Nittanies the first 3 game CFP Winner?
These teams seem to be very evenly matched. Their defensive lines are outstanding. Their quarterbacks are inconsistent as passers. They do not have elite offenses but make clutch plays when they have to. There is not a lot of daylight between the two sides, so picking one team to win or cover might not be the way to look at this game from a betting standpoint. The total might be a much better angle to take.
Notre Dame-Georgia hit the under in the Sugar Bowl. Moreover, the only reason under bettors sweated at all in that game was a pair of touchdowns not created by Notre Dame’s offense. A takeaway at the Georgia 13-yard line set up one Notre Dame touchdown. Then the Irish ran back the second-half kickoff for a touchdown. Notre Dame scored 17 very quick points, but 14 were not from the offense. The rest of the game was a defensive slog in a game which featured just 33 total points.
Notre Dame is playing lights-out defense, but its offense managed just three field goals if you exclude one 13-yard touchdown pass on a short field the defense created. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard threw for under 100 yards versus Georgia. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar did not have anything close to his best game at the Fiesta Bowl versus Boise State.
Will the winner of this game score anything more than 24 points? If not, the game will go under the total unless the final score is 24-23 or 24-22. That’s a pretty convincing way of making the case that this will be a low-scoring game.