Saturday, Nov. 23
12 p.m. Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific
ABC
The Florida Gators have bounced back, enough to save coach Billy Napier’s job. Florida’s win over LSU last week was undeniably huge for the program. It doesn’t necessarily mean the Gators have turned the corner, but it does at least offer some degree of confidence that next year, maybe Napier can stitch this thing together and rescue his Florida tenure. We’re not going to say Napier is likely to succeed in 2025, but he has at least created the argument that he can finally turn Florida around. Quarterback D.J. Lagway is a good passer. He gives Florida more upside and more of a chance to win than Graham Mertz. Merely modest improvements on offense, combined with what has been a relatively steady and consistent defense, has given Florida a much higher floor. Next year we will see how high the ceiling is for the Gators, but at least they have shown us that their “normal” standard is a lot better now than it was in September, when they looked awful.
The real question in discussing Florida – and how good it is – concerns the SEC as a whole. The SEC has a lot of good teams, but does it have a single great team? The big jumble at the top of the standings, with as many as five teams in the running for a College Football Playoff berth, has raised questions about each team’s merits and, more specifically, each team’s strength of schedule. Ole Miss played Furman, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee, and Wake Forest out of conference. That’s a very cream-puff-filled nonconference slate. Ole Miss also lost to a mediocre Kentucky team at home. Is Ole Miss an elite team, or just a team which has benefited from a manageable schedule? This trip to Gainesville might help flesh out the answer, one way or another.
Ole Miss Rebels-Florida Gators Odds
Spread: Ole Miss -10.5 (-108), Florida +10.5 (-112)
Total: 55.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Florida +300
Hear more from T.J. Rives on why he took Florida in this critical match-up for Ole Miss off the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Are the Gators a “live dog?”
The best play in this game might not be a side, but the total. Under 55.5 looks really good from where we sit. Florida beat LSU 27-16, a 43-point game. LSU had the ball for roughly twice as many plays through the first three quarters and still couldn’t score more than 13 points in those three quarters against the Gators’ excellent defense. Florida is a team whose offense doesn’t explode for huge point totals, and whose defense has regularly been able to contain opposing offenses over the past month or so. Texas (49 points) is the only opponent which really smoked Florida’s defense over the past five weeks. Georgia scored 34, but the Dawgs’ offense struggled for the first two and a half quarters before finally busting loose late in that game. Ole Miss has a really good defense, too.
Florida is not going to light up the Rebels. Take the under. If you are thinking about taking a side, we’re going to lean slightly to Florida because of the Gators’ quality defense, but we will ultimately stay away from that bet. Under 55.5 is a play we feel confident about.