Home » College Football Underdog Preview For Alabama-LSU

College Football Underdog Preview For Alabama-LSU

by Matt Zemek
College Football Underdog Preview For Alabama-LSU

Saturday, Nov. 9
7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific
ABC

The Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers both have two losses. You can do the math there and arrive at a simple but potent conclusion: The loser of this game will almost certainly be eliminated from the College Football Playoff race. Maybe the winner has a narrow path, but being realistic, it will be very hard for the loser of this game to have any place in the playoff picture in early December. That makes this game supremely electric. It makes this game akin to a game between two one-loss teams in the four-team playoff era. In a four-team playoff environment, a team could not afford a second loss. Here in the 12-team playoff era, teams will often not be able to afford a third loss. So, this is high-stakes poker for Bama and LSU. Two talented but inconsistent teams will try to minimize their weaknesses in a game which feels very much up for grabs.

Can you predict which version of Alabama and LSU will show up in this game? That’s the trick to all of this. Will the Alabama team which took a huge lead over Georgia show up in Baton Rouge, or will we see the team which lost to Vanderbilt and couldn’t score consistently against Tennessee? Will we see the LSU team which outlasted Ole Miss, or the team which fell to USC in Week 1? These are the questions bettors will have to wrestle with.

Alabama Crimson Tide-LSU Tigers Odds

Spread: Alabama -2.5 (-124), LSU +2.5 (+102)
Total: 58.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: LSU +122

Hear T.J. Rives and Kevin Rogers give insight and handicapping into this battle on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,

LSU a Home Underdog?

The game is appropriately close to a pick ‘em, essentially a game in which no team is viewed as significantly better than the other. Alabama winning by a field goal would be good enough to cover. It is a game where nailing the outright (moneyline) winner is almost certain to cash a spread ticket. Only if Bama wins by one or two points would you not win a spread bet on the Tide. This is basically a question of which team will win.

It has to be a point of concern, if you are thinking about taking Bama, that the Crimson Tide have wobbled so noticeably on the road this year, losing to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. What should also give one pause about betting on Bama is that when the Tide lost to Vanderbilt, their defense collapsed. When they lost to Tennessee, their offense imploded. Alabama has shown weaknesses on both sides of the ball. It’s not one thing which is harming the Tide. Alabama’s weaknesses have been broad and diverse.

LSU has steadily gotten better over the course of the season. This team played poorly against USC in early September and was still struggling in late September. In October, the Tigers grew up. Their win over Ole Miss showed a lot of resilience and ruggedness which weren’t apparent in September.

With both teams entering this game after a week off – as is customary in this series – we have to wonder if one of these teams will achieve a reset and play at a much higher level than what we have seen to this point. This might give the edge to Kalen DeBoer, who has shown in bowl wins over Texas each of the past two seasons that when given more time to prepare, he will deliver the goods.

The thought here is that Alabama is more volatile, LSU is steadier, and Kalen DeBoer is the better coach. All of that leaves us uncertain about the outcome. You will have to choose which X-factor you think is the most important.

You may also like