Saturday, Nov. 2
12:45 p.m. Eastern, 9:45 a.m. Pacific
SEC Network
The Vanderbilt Commodores are one win from bowl eligibility. They have had a very good season, largely thanks to transfer quarterback Diego Pavia. However, this team is much more than just Pavia. VU has a rugged, resilient defense which held Texas under 30 points this past Saturday and allowed the Commodores to remain competitive to the very end. Texas was the better team throughout the 60-minute game, but Vanderbilt never pulled the cord and bailed out. Past Vanderbilt teams would have checked out midway through the game and lost the plot, losing by 25 or more points.
This is clearly a different team, and it’s not just a story of a good quarterback changing the equation. To be sure, Pavia gives Vanderbilt a signal-caller it hasn’t often had, and that is important, but coach Clark Lea has molded VU into a better all-around product.
Auburn has had a disastrous season under coach Hugh Freeze, but the Tigers were at least able to get off the deck last week and win at Kentucky. Auburn’s defense locked down the Wildcats, enabling the Tigers to bounce back from a brutal loss at Missouri in which AU blew a 17-6 lead in the fourth quarter. Auburn has been robustly competitive this season, but the Tigers have let some winnable games slip through their fingers. The problem for Auburn isn’t getting a lead or showing fight; the problem is finishing games with enough offense to complete the job.
Vanderbilt Commodores-Auburn Tigers Odds
Spread: Vanderbilt +7 (-115), Auburn -7 (-105)
Total: 48.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Vanderbilt +220
Hear why T.J. And Gary both love Vandy as the underdog off our “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” this week by clicking play below,
Vandy Has Been Rolling As An Underdog
The underdog moneyline is barking, barking, barking here. Do remember that Vanderbilt was a 12.5-point underdog at Kentucky and won outright to cash a very big moneyline ticket. Vanderbilt winning outright is very much in play here, and Auburn is getting more respect than it should. The idea that Auburn will win is not ludicrous. Auburn being a favorite is not ludicrous, either. Auburn being a full touchdown favorite, however, is absurd. Vanderbilt is a slightly better team overall, but a seven-point line for Auburn suggests that Auburn would be a 1-point favorite in Nashville on the road, and a 4-point favorite on a neutral field.
That line is way off. You can gamble on the Vanderbilt moneyline play, but taking Vanderbilt plus the seven seems like a safe play. If you can find somewhere which will give you Vanderbilt plus 7.5 points for the same price, that’s even better. See if you can find a 7.5-point line and feel confident about your play if you can get that number.
Then, of course, if Vanderbilt starts the game well, you can get Auburn at maybe -1.5 and have a decent chance of middling, which means you can cash tickets both ways. There’s a clear angle on this game, and because of the Vanderbilt-Kentucky game (the underdog easily covering and then winning outright as well), there’s precedent for making an aggressive play with the underdog plus the points.