Friday, Nov. 1
8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific
Fox Sports 1
The Boise State Broncos passed their big test against the UNLV Rebels last week. Their only loss was at Oregon – the No. 1 team in the country – so their position as a primary contender in the Group of Five championship race is solid. Army, Memphis, and a few other teams are right there in the mix, but Boise State has put itself in position to contend for the Group of Five championship now that it has established itself as the team to beat in the Mountain West.
The real trick for Boise State in this game is to avoid the hangover effect after that physical and emotionally taxing road game in Las Vegas. The Broncos put forth a lot of energy and poured everything they had into the UNLV game. Now they have to come back on a Friday night and make sure there is enough fuel in the tank. San Diego State is not an especially good team, but the Aztecs are a feisty team which does appear to be getting better.
San Diego State went off as a 14.5-point underdog to Washington State this past weekend. The Aztecs built a multi-possession lead in the second half but then threw a crushing interception in Wazzu territory which turned the game around. Washington State rallied to win 29-26, but SDSU easily covered the spread and almost cashed a very large plus ticket on the moneyline. Boise State is obviously a huge favorite in this game, but San Diego State is good enough that Boise State can’t just show up and win.
San Diego State Aztecs-Boise State Broncos Odds
Spread: San Diego State +23.5 (-110), Boise State -23.5 (-110)
Total: 57.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: San Diego State +1100
Will Boise State Roll, Again?
The obvious point spread lean should go to San Diego State, if only because Boise State is in a typical “hangover” spot. It’s going to be hard to expect BSU to play with maximum intensity one week after the contentious UNLV game. History tells us that teams usually downshift and drift one week after playing a “game of the year” against a foremost opponent. Boise State circled that UNLV game early in the season. This is the week after, and it’s logical to think the Broncos will go through the motions for portions of this game.
However, if you are inclined to take SDSU plus the points, do keep this point in mind: Boise State Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty did not have a big game versus UNLV. The Rebels held him in check. Jeanty has rushed for more than 200 yards in several games this season. UNLV kept him under 150 yards. It could be that Jeanty, against a defense not as robust as UNLV’s, could go off. That might turn Boise State into a rocket ship which soars and covers the points. This might be a game in which you should watch the first 5-10 minutes. That might give you a greater sense of where the action is going and what the best plays might be relative to both the spread and the over-under total.